485
AXNT20 KNHC 050906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Apr 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front/frontal trough moving
across the north-central Atlantic will move into the discussion
waters south of 31N today and reach from 31N44W to 29N52W by this
evening. SW winds to gale-force are expected within around 90 nm
ahead of the front north of 28N. Winds will diminish below gale-
force Sun morning as the front shifts southeastward. Meanwhile, a
related large N swell will start impacting the waters east of 62W
tonight and will subside by mid-week. This swell will produce seas
12 to around 20 ft south of 31N from Sat night through Mon, then
gradually subside afterward. Seas of 12 ft or greater will reach
to 18N Mon night.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
1026 mb high pressure located SW of Bermuda and a 1008 mb
Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near-gale trade
winds across the south-central Caribbean through Sat night. Winds
offshore of northwestern Colombia are expected to remain at or
near gale-force until around sunrise today, and will peak back at
gale-force again tonight with seas reaching 12 to 14 ft under the
strongest winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front
will emerge off of the Texas coast tonight. Fresh to near-gale N
winds and rapidly building seas will follow the front over the
western Gulf Sun and Mon, with northerly gales forecast near
Tampico on Sun morning, and off Veracruz Sun afternoon. The cold
front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of
Campeche Mon followed by fresh to strong N winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W, then extends southwestward to 04N17W.
An ITCZ continues from 04N17W to the NE coast of Brazil near
00.5S47W. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from
the Equator to 04.5N between 24.5W and 30W, and from the Equator
to 04N between 44W and the coast of Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico.
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

Fresh to strong SE winds continue across most of the Gulf early
this morning, between high pressure over the western Atlantic
near Bermuda and 1003 mb low pressure over NE Mexico. This
sustained return flow is producing seas of 8 ft and higher across
most of the waters W of 87W and N of 21N, with peak seas of 10-11
ft. Seas are 5 to 8 ft over the remainder of the basin, except to
9 ft in the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are occurring
over the NW Gulf due to convergent surface winds in the area.
Recent satellite imagery also indicates the development of sea fog
within roughly 60 nm of the TX and LA coasts, with low visibility
being a potential hazard in these areas.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High and low pressure over south-central U.S. will continue
forcing fresh to near-gale SE winds across the basin today. The
moist SE flow may allow areas of sea fog to persist across the
northern Gulf into this morning. A strong late-season cold front
will emerge off of the Texas coast tonight. Fresh to near gale N
winds and rapidly building seas will follow the front over the
western Gulf Sun and Mon, with northerly gales forecast near
Tampico on Sun morning, and off Veracruz Sun afternoon. The cold
front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of
Campeche Mon followed by fresh to strong N winds. The front will
weaken as it moves southeast of the area Tue followed by weak high
pressure over the northern Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish
accordingly through Tue night in all but the far southeast Gulf
where fresh winds and rough seas may persist.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters near the coast of
Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

Gale-force winds off the northern coast of Colombia persist early
this morning due to a tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and the Colombian low. The remainder of
the basin is dominated by fresh to strong trades, including the
northern Caribbean passages, except near gale-force in the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas are 6 to 10 ft across the majority of the basin,
with localized seas up to 12 to 14 ft offshore of northern
Colombia Colombia.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient from the Bermuda
High to the Colombian Low will continue to produce gale-force
winds N of Colombia until around sunrise, with another round
forecast tonight. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these
winds. Fresh to near-gale trades will prevail across most of the
remainder of the basin, including Atlantic passages and the Gulf
of Honduras. By early next week, as the weakening Bermuda High
shifts eastward, trades across the Caribbean will be reduced to
moderate to fresh. A cold front may reach the northwest Caribbean
Tue with winds shifting from southeasterly to northerly behind it.
The front may then stall and dissipate over the NW Caribbean mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the far NE Atlantic waters east of
42W. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

A weakening cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters along
31N24W and continues to 24N48W. A surface trough, formerly part
of the aforementioned front, then extends from 24N48W to 25N65W.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas follow the
front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and
within 100 nm ahead of the front. The subtropical ridge is
anchored by 1026 mb high pressure SW of Bermuda near 29N67W. This
pattern is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds and 7 to 10
ft seas from offshore of the northern portion of the Greater
Antilles through the Bahamas and Straits of Florida. Mostly
moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere across the basin,
except moderate to fresh S of 19N where seas are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a Bermuda High will continue to
force fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas from
offshore of the northern portion of the Greater Antilles through
the Bahamas and Straits of Florida through tonight. A frontal
trough will rotate through the NE waters today and tonight,
bringing fresh to strong winds through tonight. At the same time,
a large N swell will start impacting the waters east of 62W
tonight and will subside by mid-week. Fresh to strong S winds will
develop off the coast of northeast Florida tonight and Mon ahead
of a cold front moving through the southeastern United States. The
front is forecast to move off of the coast Mon night, and reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by mid-week where it may stall and
become a trough. This front will be followed by fresh to strong NE
winds and moderate to rough seas.

$$
Lewitsky
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