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WW 501 SEVERE TSTM MN 090045Z - 090700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 501 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 745 PM CDT Mon
Jul 8 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Minnesota
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 745 PM until
200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph
likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms over eastern North
Dakota will continue to track eastward this evening, posing a risk
of locally damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of
International Falls MN to 45 miles east southeast of Detroit Lakes
MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 498...WW 499...WW 500...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 27040.
...Hart
WW 0501 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 501
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DTL TO
35 NE INL.
..SMITH..07/09/19
ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 501
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC021-061-071-159-090700-
MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS ITASCA KOOCHICHING WADENA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 499
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S GCC TO
20 SW GCC TO 30 NE SHR TO 60 NNE SHR TO 50 SW MLS TO 40 NNW MLS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420
..WENDT..07/09/19
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-075-079-109-090340-
MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON
POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE WIBAUX
WYC005-011-045-090340-
WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250
AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD...AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and damaging
wind gusts are possible Tuesday afternoon across parts of eastern
Wyoming into southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska. Additional
scattered strong storms may impact portions of the northern Plains
into the Middle Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys.
...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently traversing the northern
Rockies is expected to continue eastward and begin amplifying as it
enters the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon. By 12Z Wednesday, the
shortwave will likely extend from northwestern Ontario into central
NE. An attendant surface low will gradually move northeastward
ahead of the upper system, moving across ND and into northwest
Ontario by early Wednesday morning.
Elsewhere, expansive upper ridging will prevail across the southern
tier of the CONUS while a shortwave trough and associated jet
streak approach the Pacific Northwest Coast. An area of low pressure
expected to be over the Florida Panhandle early Tuesday will drift southwestward into the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
...Northern/Central Plains...Upper Midwest... Showers and
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
along the northern and eastern periphery of the surface low, which
is expected to be centered over western ND. Warm front associated
with this low will likely extend southeastward from central SD into
central MO with additional showers and thunderstorms ongoing along
and north of this boundary. As the surface low moves northeastward
and occludes throughout the day, the warm front will also move
northeastward while a cold front sweeps southeastward through the
central Plains. Warm temperatures aloft and weak frontal convergence
will limit thunderstorm development along the cold front across SD
and NE, with much of the afternoon activity remaining north of the
warm front over the Upper Midwest. Additional development is possible
as the upper low moves across the Dakotas Tuesday evening. Majority
of the thunderstorms are expected to be displaced north or east of
the stronger buoyancy, tempering the severe threat. If a warm sector
storm does develop, damaging wind gusts are the primary threat.
A second risk area exists from northeast WY into south-central
SD/north-central NE. Here, a drier, post-frontal air mass is expected
to be in place, but deep mixing and steep mid-level lapse rates will
still result in destabilization ahead of the approaching shortwave
trough and attendant speed max. The strong forcing for ascent
accompanying the shortwave trough will interact with this diurnally destabilizing air mass, resulting in convective initiation across
the higher terrain of central WY. Upscale growth of these storms
is probable, with storm motion taking the resulting convective line
across southern SD/northern NE. Some hail is possible, particularly
with the initial development over WY, but the primary threat from
these storms is strong wind gusts.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 07/09/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150
PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into
Wednesday night across portions of the Upper Midwest into the Great
Lakes region and middle Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis... A prominent mid-level subtropical high center
appears likely to undergo further strengthening/expansion over the
southern Rockies and surrounding areas of the Colorado Valley,
Great Basin and central and southern Plains during this period.
Around the northern periphery of this feature, anticyclonic
mid-latitude westerlies across the Pacific Northwest through the
Montana international border area and northern Plains may broaden,
in the wake of one amplified short wave trough forecast to progress
east and southeast of the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes region.
Another short wave digging across northern portions of Alberta,
Saskatchewan and Manitoba may contribute to the suppression of
the ridging.
A modest surface cyclone may accompany the lead trough, with a
relatively well-defined cold front forecast to advance southeastward
into the lower Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valley region and south
central Plains by 12Z Thursday. It still appears that a corridor
of moderate to strong boundary layer destabilization ahead of the
front will provide the primary focus for possible severe thunderstorm development Wednesday through Wednesday night.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into middle Mississippi Valley...
Models indicate that the larger-scale short wave trough will be
comprised of several fairly significant smaller-scale perturbations,
with lingering spread evident within the model output concerning
their evolution. This contributes to at least some uncertainty
concerning convective evolution for this period, and it remains
unclear what impact the relatively cool waters of Lake Michigan
may have.
It does still appear that one impulse will pivot across Wisconsin
toward the upper peninsula of Michigan and Lake Michigan during the
day Wednesday. As it does, the strongest southwesterly mid/upper
flow is forecast to nose northeastward across this region and
contribute to strong deep-layer shear supportive of supercells.
It remains more unclear whether low-level wind fields will be strong
enough to contribute to sufficiently large low-level hodographs
supportive of tornadic potential, but any appreciable risk for
tornadoes during this period may become focused across northeastern
Wisconsin into the upper peninsula of Michigan.
Otherwise, gradually evolving and organizing clusters of storms
posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts, and some risk
for severe hail, appears the primary concern, southward across
northern Illinois, parts of eastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri.
This will be aided by inflow of air characterized by moderate to
large CAPE (2000-3000+ J/kg), and perhaps forcing for ascent and
strengthening lower/mid tropospheric flow (30-40+ kt at 700 mb)
with another smaller-scale impulse digging southeastward toward
the lower Ohio Valley through Wednesday night.
Farther north, models indicate that boundary-layer destabilization
associated with low-level moisture advection may allow for upstream
storms to re-intensify while spreading eastward into and across
lower Michigan Wednesday evening.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Kerr.. 07/09/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The pattern will become less favorable for fire
weather spread today. An upper-level ridge will build across the
Intermountain West bringing with it weak upper-level winds. Dry air
with little chance of precipitation will be in place across much of
the Southwest and Great Basin. Fire weather concerns will be minimal
as surface winds will be too light outside of a few localized areas.
..Wendt.. 07/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to build within
the Intermountain West on D2/Wednesday. Both upper-level and surface
winds will continue to remain quite weak during the period. Given
continued dry conditions during the afternoon, a few locations in
the Great Basin/Desert Southwest may experience locally elevated
conditions where surface winds are locally stronger.
..Wendt.. 07/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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Ass, n.:
The masculine of "lass".

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