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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204
AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH MINNESOTA AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable primarily of damaging
gusts, are possible today over a portion of the central Great Plains
to the upper Mississippi Valley.
...Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region... A series
of mid-level disturbances via convective-origin will traverse
across the north-central U.S. today on the northern periphery of a
flattened mid-level ridge situated over the lower MO Valley. A cold
front should extend from the upper Great Lakes through northern WI, south-central MN, southeast SD to western NE. This boundary will
move very slowly southeast during the day. A warm front will advance
eastward through the upper Great Lakes region including Lower MI.
Storms will likely be ongoing over the Upper Midwest related to MCS
activity near the aforementioned fronts over MN and the western
Great Lakes. Models indicate the warm sector south of these
boundaries will likely once again become strongly unstable with
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE likely. Potential will exist for storms to
redevelop along the convectively reinforced boundaries from southeast
SD through southern MN and into WI by late afternoon into the
evening, with storm coverage likely modulated by progressive MCVs.
Forecast soundings suggest effective shear 25-35 kt within this
corridor to the south of the stronger belt of westerlies confined
to southern Canada. Multicells and perhaps some short-lived
supercell structures (where deep-layer shear is locally augmented)
will primarily be capable of damaging gusts. Additional storms may
develop farther southwest into northeast NE along pre-frontal trough
within weaker winds aloft, but within a thermodynamic environment
that will support a threat for downburst winds and hail.
...Central through northern High Plains region... Isolated to widely
scattered storms are forecast to develop from MT southeast into
the central High Plains by mid-late afternoon. Low-level moisture
and instability will remain modest, but wind profiles in this
region with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear will support supercells.
Farther south, moderate instability may develop across the central
High Plains but with weaker shear. Scattered to locally numerous
storm development will probably focus near the front from NE into
eastern CO. Storms spreading east off the higher terrain may
produce isolated instances of downburst winds and hail.
...Northeast OR... A mid-level low over the eastern Pacific will
slowly migrate to the OR coast by early evening. Ample heating east
of the Cascades coupled with relatively cool 500mb temperatures (-14
degrees C) will contribute to weak instability by mid afternoon.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop and a few of the
stronger downdrafts may yield a locally severe gust.
..Smith/Nauslar.. 07/01/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231
AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind damage
will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and hail
will also be possible from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Southern
Great Lakes.
...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level trough
will move across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday as west to
southwest mid-level flow becomes established across the northern
Rockies and northern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to move southeastward into central North Dakota and far
southeast Montana. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass should be
in place with dewpoints in the lower 60s F. As a result, a pocket
of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon in far
southeast Montana and northwestern South Dakota where the models
develop scattered convection by late afternoon. The moderate
instability combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and 35 to
45 kt of deep-layer shear should be favorable for supercells with
large hail. Wind damage could also accompany the stronger cells
especially if an MCS can organize by early evening.
...Mid Missouri Valley to the Southern Great Lakes...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Tuesday from
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a
front is forecast to move southward across Iowa, Wisconsin and Lower
Michigan. Along and south of the front, surface dewpoints should be
in the lower to mid 70s F. This should result in the development
of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms
that initiate along the front should move southeastward into the
stronger instability during the late afternoon. Steep low-level
lapse rates and veered low-level winds to the west-southwest will
be favorable for short line segments with a potential for a few
damaging wind gusts.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Broyles.. 07/01/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to prevail over
much of the CONUS with the exception of troughing in the Pacific
Northwest and Northeast today. An upper-level shortwave trough will
move into the Pacific Northwest, bringing a 35-45 knot mid-level
jet across the northwest Great Basin, with downslope enhancement
and daytime mixing transporting stronger winds to the surface. This
may result in elevated conditions (12-20 mph westerly sustained
surface winds and RH values of 8-20%) across portions of northwest
Nevada and into far southeast Oregon/southwest Idaho ahead of a
weak Pacific cold front. However, given marginal fuel conditions
(mostly just lower-elevation grasses are cured) and that these
weather conditions are fairly common for this area and time of year,
an elevated area was not included.
..Nauslar.. 07/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing centered over the Pacific
Northwest begins to deepen and extend southward on Tuesday with
strengthening mid-level flow over the Great Basin. A surface low will
likely remain in the central Great Basin with a weak Pacific cold
front sagging southeast into northern Nevada. Hot/dry/unstable/breezy conditions will develop south of this front across the southern half
of the Great Basin into Desert Southwest. Southwest surface winds
of 10-20 mph with RH values of 5-20% will likely develop across
this region possibly resulting in elevated conditions. However, with
stronger synoptic forcing still displaced northward, it appears that
deep boundary-layer mixing via strong daytime heating will result
in typical dry/breezy conditions across the region precluding the
introduction of an elevated area at this time.
..Nauslar.. 07/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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In our civilization, and under our republican form of government, intelligence is so highly honored that it is rewarded by exemption from the cares of office.
-- Ambrose Bierce, "The Devil's Dictionary"

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