ACUS11 KWNS 232232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232232
NMZ000-COZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Areas affected...much of northern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696...

Valid 232232Z - 240100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered cells should continue to produce hail over 1.00"
diameter through this evening.

DISCUSSION...Two north-south zones of cells persist, forming over
the higher terrain both west and east of the Rio Grande Valley.
Backed winds aloft along with low-level southerlies are resulting in
straight hodographs with northeastward motions averaging 215/22 kt.

Boundary-layer dewpoints remain mixed into the 40s F with some low
50s into southern/eastern NM. MLCAPE is near 1000 J/kg, with
seasonably cool temperatures aloft. Cellular storm mode should
continue to favor hail as the primary risk, with hail at or above
1.00" likely.

Some CAMs suggest aggregating outflow later this evening, which
could potentially result in strong wind gusts. By that time,
instability will have weakened, and severe gust potential would
appear to be minimal.

..Jewell.. 10/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!63tY5M0E-Xv68Nque6cDdfWLVKq-tm5NXWwGyZpbwzAPEGRvbOnaevdQBqaftl2w10OAQeF0Z-onXHia3xZxwNJ_GNQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36620353 34140414 34020452 33910712 34160751 34810732
35550726 36450725 36800684 37070495 37000395 36620353

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
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