ACUS11 KWNS 251614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251614
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-251845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Florida into the lower
Savannah River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251614Z - 251845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts appear possible with the most
intense storms this afternoon. A watch is unlikely due to the
limited areal extent of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows thunderstorms gradually
increasing in coverage across portions of the northern FL Peninsula
and south-central GA, to the south of a quasi-stationary front
draped across the region. Modification of the 12Z Jacksonville, FL,
sounding for current surface conditions yields a strongly unstable
air mass with MLCAPE of around 3000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear
will remain weak across the region, the degree of instability will
support intense updrafts and subsequent, water-loaded downdrafts
capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8TQBpSyONvinjnzvyLXEASTE9GcuYKxQeRLAw7pOo5DaE5tl3Pot-pUkaXP-sFmhCdaiVpmfdNXvtUO6Fn0ye3C25ic$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30028196 30028304 30668342 32248183 32788100 32458033
31288116 30568138 30228138 30028196

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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