ACUS11 KWNS 250216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250216
SDZ000-NDZ000-250345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0916 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...North-central/northeast SD into far southeast ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624...625...

Valid 250216Z - 250345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624, 625
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat may spread southeastward into late
evening.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has recently become somewhat
better organized south and southwest of Jamestown, ND, with a recent
gust of 77 mph observed in McIntosh County. The 00Z ABR sounding
depicted substantial CINH for surface-based parcels, though
considerably weaker CINH and strong buoyancy for parcels rooted
around 850 mb. This thermodynamic profile within a modest
warm-advection regime may allow for persistence of the ongoing
cluster into late evening as it moves southeastward, assuming the
cold pool remains sufficiently strong.

Severe gusts (potentially near/above 75 mph) will remain possible
with this cluster as it moves into northeast SD, while isolated hail
will also be possible with the strongest embedded cells. WW 624 has
been expanded in order to address this threat.

..Dean.. 08/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!70CVViSSh8WNsdrL-uvEzHADNizqh7vKhoIQpiq2RbkH_ebPMx_9OA1fTpnZ89jHZvq1DQcD7OEX6OCa7YNZk_F4e3M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45120036 45959991 46529860 46119719 45499703 45169757
44969832 44889857 44949946 45120036

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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