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  • DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 02:35:40 2026
    ACUS01 KWNS 160235
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 160233

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0933 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

    Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AZ...SOUTHEAST MT...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OR
    INTO SOUTHERN WA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated damaging winds are possible for portions of the northern
    Rockies/High Plains, Pacific Northwest, and Arizona into the early
    overnight hours. A brief tornado or two may also occur across parts
    of south-central Texas.

    ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

    Severe probabilities have been removed from the Northeast states
    with the 01z update. The 00z OKX RAOB indicated ample inhibition,
    which should suppress convection the remainder of the evening.
    Despite strong deep-layer northwesterly flow and modest midlevel
    lapse rates supporting elevated instability, it is unlikely
    additional convection will develop overnight as a midlevel shortwave
    impulse increasingly moves offshore over the Atlantic.

    Some guidance suggests that convection ongoing over southern Lower
    MI may continue to develop/percolate southeast overnight across Lake
    Erie and into northeast OH/northwest PA within strong northwesterly
    mid/upper flow. The 00z PIT RAOB shows steep lapse rates and large
    instability. However, inhibition should increase with loss of
    daytime heating. An isolated strong storm producing small hail
    cannot be ruled out, but overall severe potential appears limited
    given time of day and nebulous forcing for ascent.

    ...Central Texas...

    Rounds of thunderstorms will continue overnight as lobes of
    convectively enhanced vorticity maxima rotate around the mid/upper
    low centered over west-central TX. Low-level warm advection will
    persist through the night, maintaining rich boundary layer moisture, maintaining at least modest low-level instability. Vertically
    veering low-level wind profiles will maintain 0-1 km SRH around
    100-200 m2/s2, and a tornado or two will remain possible.

    ...AZ...

    Strong thunderstorms could produce locally damaging/severe gusty
    outflow winds through late evening. Reference MCD 1628 for
    information on short term severe potential.

    ...MT/WY...

    Severe probabilities have mostly be removed from WY and confined to
    MT, where modest instability overlaps with strong effective shear
    magnitudes. Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible through late
    evening as convection shifts east toward a better low-level lapse
    rate environment.

    ...WA/OR...

    Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms will persist tonight
    across central OR into south-central WA. A belt of 30-40 kt
    effective shear magnitudes may provide sufficient support within the
    weakly unstable airmass for a couple of strong storms. Steep lapse
    rates will favor strong outflow winds with this convection.

    ..Leitman.. 07/16/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 20:20:50 2026
    ACUS01 KWNS 092020
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 092018

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0318 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
    EVENING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN
    NEW YORK...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
    of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley today.

    ...20Z Update...
    Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorms forecast based
    on observations and recent guidance. Severe probabilities remain
    unchanged, however. See the previous discussion for additional
    information.

    ..Wendt.. 09/09/2026

    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026/

    ...OH/PA/NY...
    A fast-moving shortwave trough now over WI/IL will track eastward
    today across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the primary
    baroclinic currently extends from Lake Erie into OH/IN and will move
    eastward and be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
    Strong heating and dewpoints in the 70s across much of OH and
    western PA will result in moderate CAPE values and steep low-level
    lapse rates. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote organized
    storms with some bowing structures expected, capable of locally
    damaging wind gusts. This activity will spread into western
    NY/northwest PA by early evening before weakening.

    ...IN/IL/MO...
    The storms that form over OH will zipper southwestward along the
    boundary into a pocket of ample CAPE/moisture over parts of southern
    IN/IL into southern MO. Winds aloft in this area will be weaker,
    with less overall organization of storms. Nevertheless, a few
    storms may occasionally produce damaging wind gusts.

    ...TX/OK/KS...
    Widely scattered slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms will pose a
    risk of gusty/damaging winds in a hot/humid surface air mass.

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 24 06:01:34 2026
    ACUS01 KWNS 240558
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 240558

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1258 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

    Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight.

    ...Synopsis...
    A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the
    CONUS, with south-central U.S. upper ridging flanked by an evolving
    upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard and an amplifying upper
    trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.

    ...Southern Arizona/southern New Mexico to southern High Plains...
    A belt of moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow will
    prevail regionally, with a mid-level disturbance expected to spread northeastward from northern Baja toward Arizona, with multiple other convectively influenced perturbations spreading across New Mexico
    and the southern High Plains. Pockets of moderate destabilization
    could occur into peak heating across southeast Arizona/southern New
    Mexico, as well as the southern High Plains including parts of the
    Texas Panhandle and western portions of Oklahoma and Kansas. A few stronger/locally severe storms with hail and/or gusty winds could
    occur late this afternoon and early evening in these areas, but the
    overall magnitude/likelihood of severe storms is currently expected
    to remain relatively low.

    ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/24/2026





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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 16:50:58 2026
    ACUS01 KWNS 151650
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 151649

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1149 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

    Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
    MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are
    possible today across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio
    Valleys.

    ...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
    Extreme/record-caliber seasonal moisture content exists over the
    region with warm-sector prevalent 2+ inch Precipitable Water values
    and surface dewpoints in excess of 70F. A surface wave over the
    middle part of Missouri late this morning should gradually/modestly
    deepen as it progresses east-northeastward near a northward-shifting
    warm front, although the front/warm sector are a bit muddled by
    ongoing convection across southern portions of Missouri and
    Illinois.

    Current split flow over the Great Plains will quickly resolve, with
    a central Plains shortwave trough/speed max phasing with a
    broader-scale upper trough over the Upper Midwest through tonight.
    The net result will be a strengthening of deep-layer winds
    along/north of the warm sector that will shift poleward, although to
    what exact degree/spatial extent is uncertain given some of the
    ongoing convection.

    At least some scattering of warm-sector cloud cover, diurnal heating
    and the increasing moisture content with northward extent will allow
    for modest cool season destabilization, with SBCAPE potentially
    exceeding 1000 J/kg across the lower Wabash Valley and
    southern/downstate portions of Illinois and Indiana. This should
    allow for re-development/intensification of storms this afternoon,
    although the exact magnitude of today's severe risk is still a bit
    uncertain and contingent on surface heating/destabilization. But
    this scenario could include a few supercells, with the possibility
    of a semi-focused severe/some tornado risk near the warm front,
    which may be augmented by some of the prior convection, and ahead of
    the surface low. Supercells aside, some semi-organized clusters
    capable of wind damage should evolve within the high-moisture
    content environment and 40+ kt effective shear. Overall storm
    intensity is likely to wane within a couple hours of sunset,
    generally by late evening.

    ...North/West Texas...
    An outflow-augmented cold front will continue to spread
    southeastward. The tendency for post-frontal convection should
    remain the dominant scenario with boundary-parallel deep-layer flow contributing to a more anafrontal character. Gradual diurnal heating
    could support some intensification of storms along the leading edge
    of the composite boundary this afternoon. As such, some stronger
    wind gusts are plausible, but this scenario and related potential
    for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain limited.

    ..Guyer/Marsh.. 10/15/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)