-
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1
From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 23 08:58:28 2026ACUS01 KWNS 230858
SWODY1
SPC AC 230856
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and
isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into
parts of the central and southern Plains today into tonight.
Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with storms
along the Mid-Atlantic. Scattered storms capable of isolated severe
wind/hail are possible across the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the Eastern Seaboard while upper
ridging builds over the western into central CONUS today. Multiple
mid-level impulses are poised to traverse the upper ridge,
supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development in multiple
rounds across the Plains. These rounds of storms will encompass the
entire period (12Z Tuesday morning through 12Z Wednesday morning),
resulting in a complex forecast. Nonetheless, stronger flow aloft
associated with the ridge will advect an EML atop seasonal low-level
moisture, resulting in enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to
support an appreciable severe threat, especially over the central
High Plains. Otherwise, a cold front approaching the East Coast will
support a line of severe thunderstorms over the Mid-Atlantic.
...Portions of the central High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, upslope flow beneath a glancing mid-level
impulse will support the initiation of at least isolated storms.
These storms will develop atop a relatively mixed boundary layer and
surface dewpoints approaching 60 F, overspread by 9 C/km mid-level
lapse rates, resulting in moderate to locally strong buoyancy (i.e.
3000+ J/kg MLCAPE). Strong vertical wind shear will also be in
place, with 50 kts of effective bulk shear driven by elongated
hodographs with modest low-level curvature. Supercells will be the
primary storm mode, accompanied by a threat for all hazards. Given
the potential for a mixed boundary layer, intense gusts well
exceeding 75 mph will be possible, in addition to hailstones
potentially reaching the 2-3.5 inch range. Any supercells that can
ingest terrain-induced low-level vertical vorticity may be
accompanied by a landspout/hybrid tornado threat.
...Portions of the central and southern Plains...
A surface boundary currently resides along the Red River, with
thunderstorms developing all along this boundary from the TX
Panhandle to central MS. At the start of the forecast period (12Z
Tuesday), an established low-level jet will be in the process of
transporting a moist low-level airmass northward, perhaps
encouraging northward movement of the surface boundary as well.
However, an MCS may develop somewhere along the KS/OK border at the
start of the period along an elevated boundary, which will drift
southeastward through the late morning/early afternoon hours. The
evolution of this MCS and interacting convection with the
aforementioned surface boundary introduces considerable uncertainty
to the forecast, especially for late afternoon/early evening storms.
If the MCS and merging surface boundary convection linger over the
southern Plains through the day, later severe potential may be
reduced. However, if convection can exit the Plains or somehow
dissipate by late morning/early afternoon, enough destabilization
may take place for an evening severe threat. Should the later
scenario unfold, convective initiation over the southern High Plains
may result in severe hail/wind producing supercells merging into a
cold-pool driven MCS, which in turn may produce a severe wind swath
with 75+ mph gusts. Given so much uncertainty with the details of
this forecast, a broad area of 15 percent/CIG1 probabilities were
introduced for portions of the central and southern Plains.
Considerable adjustments to this forecast (upgrades or probabilities
removal) may be needed depending on convective and subsequent
modified environmental evolution through the first half of the
period.
...Parts of the Northern Plains...
Cold temperatures aloft and 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will
accompany the passage of an upper low over parts of the northern
Plains into the Upper MS Valley. By afternoon peak heating,
thunderstorms initiating along the periphery of the upper low, amid
a belt of stronger flow aloft (driving elongated hodographs) will
support multicells and perhaps transient supercells capable of
isolated severe wind and hail.
...Mid-Atlantic...
By late morning into early afternoon, surface temperatures warming
into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints will yield over 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE, but distributed through tall/thin profiles given poor (5-6
C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Nearly unidirectional tropospheric wind
profiles will yield nearly 40 kts of effective (speed) shear, which
will favor multicellular development and ultimately a squall line
along/ahead of the cold front. Damaging gusts are expected to be the
main threat, though a brief tornado may also occur wherever locally
backed near-surface winds may be realized.
..Squitieri/Halbert.. 06/23/2026
$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From COD Weather ProcessorACUS01 KWNS 071619
SWODY1
SPC AC 071618
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA....
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains
into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe
storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and
southeast Arizona.
...Dakotas/MN...
A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Rockies and
Plains states, with moderately strong winds aloft topping the ridge
over the Dakotas. A surface boundary will lift slightly northward
and extend from the Black Hills region into western MN by evening,
with a very unstable air mass expected to the south. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop across southeast MT/eastern WY by late
afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. These storms
will intensify as they build into the greater moisture/instability
in place across SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear and convergence near
the boundary will promote supercell storms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. If sufficient organization can occur with
these storms, there is some risk of a linear MCS tracking eastward
through the evening across northern SD/southern ND into western MN
with a risk of damaging winds.
Ongoing storms over northeast SD may also persist, along with new
development this afternoon along the boundary. These storms could
also pose a risk of damaging winds and hail.
...VA/NC...
Visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover over
northern/central VA, but mostly clear skies from southern VA into
NC. Areas of strong heating will again be at risk of strong storms
producing occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon.
...TX/LA...
Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon in
vicinity of a weak upper trough over the ArkLaTex region. Locally
damaging wind gusts are the main risk.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/07/2026
$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From COD Weather ProcessorACUS01 KWNS 072022
SWODY1
SPC AC 072018
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ERROR
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
are possible from the northern High Plains into parts of the Upper
Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly
damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from the
southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley,
parts of the Great Basin, and southeast Arizona.
...20Z Update...
No major changes were made to the outlook with this update. In the
wake of earlier convective overturning in north-central/northeast
SD, cloud breaks are supporting diurnal heating and gradual
boundary-layer recovery. This, combined with a strengthening
low-level jet into this evening, will promote some northward
movement of an east/west-oriented surface boundary currently draped
across southern/central SD. This boundary may be the focus for a few
supercells later this evening, though it is unclear if this activity
will develop on the immediate cool side of the boundary or in the moist/unstable warm sector. If these storms can develop into the
warm sector, they could pose a locally greater risk of large hail,
damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes -- given ample low-level
hodograph curvature. However, given a large component of
boundary-parallel deep-layer shear and strengthening warm advection,
storms may tend to grow upscale and pose mainly a severe-wind risk.
Additionally, there is a scenario where a severe MCS could emerge
from this activity or storms forming to the west as they track
along/south of the boundary in the strongly unstable warm sector.
However, confidence in this scenario is too low for higher
severe-probabilities at this time.
..Weinman.. 07/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026/
...Dakotas/MN...
A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Rockies and
Plains states, with moderately strong winds aloft topping the ridge
over the Dakotas. A surface boundary will lift slightly northward
and extend from the Black Hills region into western MN by evening,
with a very unstable air mass expected to the south. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop across southeast MT/eastern WY by late
afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. These storms
will intensify as they build into the greater moisture/instability
in place across SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear and convergence near
the boundary will promote supercell storms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. If sufficient organization can occur with
these storms, there is some risk of a linear MCS tracking eastward
through the evening across northern SD/southern ND into western MN
with a risk of damaging winds.
Ongoing storms over northeast SD may also persist, along with new
development this afternoon along the boundary. These storms could
also pose a risk of damaging winds and hail.
...VA/NC...
Visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover over
northern/central VA, but mostly clear skies from southern VA into
NC. Areas of strong heating will again be at risk of strong storms
producing occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon.
...TX/LA...
Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon in
vicinity of a weak upper trough over the ArkLaTex region. Locally
damaging wind gusts are the main risk.
$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From COD Weather ProcessorACUS01 KWNS 091257
SWODY1
SPC AC 091255
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Arizona.
...Central High Plains into the Central Plains...
A similar thermodynamic environment to yesterday is expected across
the central Rockies today, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm
development anticipated. The presence of a low-amplitude shortwave
trough could lead to greater storm coverage today versus yesterday.
Moist post-frontal easterlies will help offset mixing across much of
the region, keeping dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s across east-central/northeast CO, with higher dewpoints farther east into
southern NE and western/central KS. Moderate westerly flow aloft
will support organized storm structures into this more buoyant
environment, with an attendant threat for strong to severe gusts
with the stronger bowing segments. There is some potential for a
contiguous line of storms from the NE Panhandle across eastern CO if
widespread cold pool amalgamation is realized. Uncertainty regarding
convective evolution precludes higher probabilities with this
outlook, but increased probabilities may be needed later if forecast
confidence increases.
...Northern Plains...
A somewhat separate convective regime is expected across the
northern Plains versus farther south. Here, strong heating of a
moist airmass beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support
robust buoyancy this afternoon, with MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg
anticipated. The better forcing for ascent will remain north of the
region and some convective inhibition may linger, but convergence
along a modest cold front and/or pre-frontal trough/low will likely
result in at least isolated thunderstorms. Strong buoyancy combined
with effective bulk shear around 30-35 kt should support a few
supercells. Large to isolated very large hail and strong downdrafts
are possible within the more organized storms.
...Lower MO Valley into the Lower OH Valley...
An MCS is currently tracking southeastward through central MO, with occasionally strong gusts noted on its leading edge. Continued
eastward progression away from the low-level jet, coupled with the
decreasing strength of the jet, will likely lead to a weakening of
this MCS this morning. However, the moist airmass downstream will
diurnally destabilize, likely resulting in a reintensification of
the MCS and/or development of new storms along its leading edge.
Additional development is possible in the wake of this MCS, amid
low-level moisture convergence along a potential differential
heating boundary. Vertical shear will be weak, but moderate/strong
buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong cold
pools and the potential for damaging gusts.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A moist airmass will remain in place across the Mid-Atlantic today, characterized by afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Airmass destabilization is expected by the early afternoon, with
moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg)
likely. A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over TN/KY is
forecast to progress northeastward, interacting with the moist and
unstable airmass to support thunderstorms. While the thermodynamic characteristics of the airmass remain similar to the last few days,
increased large-scale ascent and slightly stronger mid-level flow
attendant to the shortwave will likely support greater storm
coverage and intensity. Moderate vertical shear will support a
predominantly outflow-dominant multicellular mode, with damaging
wind gusts as the primary risk, particularly in areas where few
clouds allow for more heating and steeper low-level lapse rates.
...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
Moderate westerly/southwesterly flow aloft at the base of a
shortwave trough moving across Ontario and Quebec will extend from
the Lower Great Lakes region through New England this afternoon. A
modest cold front associated with the shortwave will shift eastward/southeastward into the region as well, interacting with the
warm, moist and unstable airmass in place to support scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon. Poor mid-level lapse rates will keep
buoyancy modest, but the moderate westerly/southwesterly flow aloft
could still support some stronger bowing segments capable of
damaging gusts.
...Southeast Arizona...
Mid-level moisture will support afternoon thunderstorm development
across the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM.
Southwestward storm motion associated with modest mid-level easterly/northeasterly flow could take a few of these storms into
the hot and deeply mixed airmass across southeast AZ. Strong
downdrafts are possible with any stronger storms.
..Mosier/Thornton.. 07/09/2026
$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From COD Weather ProcessorACUS01 KWNS 121643
SWODY1
SPC AC 121641
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND
THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...
CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK PROBABILITY LINES OVER GA/CAROLINAS
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered
severe/damaging winds may occur this afternoon/evening across parts
of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately
over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also
appear possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains...
Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field
over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating
zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to
east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to
warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the
Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will
likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong
to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary
hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely
develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex
region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary
layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3
km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger
downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains
but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher
severe probabilities this outlook update.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer
air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether
additional storm development will occur this afternoon in
association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over
parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for
supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued
conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some
guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into
parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts.
...Arizona...
Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary
layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast
to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert,
aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled
by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph).
...Montana...
A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few
high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across
north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep
inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the
stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/12/2026
$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
-
From COD Weather ProcessorACUS01 KWNS 190111
SWODY1
SPC AC 190109
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT CATEGORICAL LINES
...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of wind damage may continue for another hour or so
across central Pennsylvania before dissipating. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail
will be likely across portions western Montana
... 01Z Update ...
Overall thunderstorm intensity continues to wane across much of the
northeast with the loss of daytime heating and multiple rounds of
thunderstorms acting to stabilize the airmass. However, a few
damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from far eastern
Ohio into southern New England for perhaps another hour or two. The
most likely area for wind damage is across central Pennsylvania
where the most intense thunderstorms are currently found. These
storms should weaken further in the next couple of hours, bringing
an end to the organized severe threat.
Across western Montana, sufficient buoyancy is in place to support
ongoing convection, some of which has produced severe wind gusts
this afternoon. Steep lapse rates coupled with gradually
strengthening mid-level flow will support an ongoing severe threat,
including a couple of outflow-driven convective clusters. Please see
MCD #1656 for more details.
..Marsh.. 07/19/2026
$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
-
From COD Weather ProcessorACUS01 KWNS 252009
SWODY1
SPC AC 252007
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO SOUTHWESTER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA...
CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe gusts are possible across South Dakota late this
afternoon and into portions of southwestern Minnesota and northwest
Iowa through the evening.
...20 Update Northern Plains/Midwest...
Confidence continues to increase in widespread severe gusts
developing across parts of central and eastern SD late this
afternoon and into the evening. Very hot surface temperatures
(100-110F) are supporting very steep-low and mid-level lapse rates
of 8-9 C/km over western SD. Initial storms developing now with
temperature-dew point spreads of 40-50 F will favor efficient
outflow generation and an increasing potential for severe gusts as
convection develops and intensifies this afternoon.
The primary severe concern across the northern Plains and Midwest
remains the potential for widespread severe wind gusts with one or
more organized convective clusters. A CIG-2 wind area was added for
the potential for some peak gusts in the 80-100 mph range. Some
recent CAM guidance has trended toward more clustering and a compact
bowing cluster across central and eastern SD late this afternoon and
evening. A brief mesovortex tornado or two may also occur if a
bowing cluster can develop. However, weaker overall synoptic forcing
suggests lower confidence in how widespread the most intense storms
will be. See MCD#1729 for short-term information.
Downstream, wind probabilities and CIG-1 have been expanded along a
surface wind shift/buoyancy gradient into parts of northeast NE, IA
and southern MN. Recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged runs continue to show
a strong cluster moving east and then southeastward this evening and
into the overnight hours. Strong to severe gusts will remain
possible with these storms given the large buoyancy.
Farther north across MN, isolated storms, including supercell
structures could support isolated hail or damaging gusts this
evening.
...MT...
Scattered to widespread high-based storms remain likely this
afternoon and evening over central and southern MT. Steep-lapse
rates in the lowest 3-5 km will support a risk for severe gusts.
Some clustering may occur as storms spread eastward into this
evening. No changes were made to the outlook, see the prior
discussion.
..Lyons.. 07/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/
...SD into adjacent parts of IA/MN...
A prominent upper ridge centered over the central/southern Rockies
will feature the southern periphery of appreciably strong mid to
high-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest across the
northern High Plains and into the north-central states. Late
morning surface analysis shows very hot temperatures ensuing across
western NE into the western half of SD with richer moisture (surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F) located over the eastern half
of NE/SD. Visible-satellite imagery shows some mid to high clouds
across northern WY moving towards the Black Hills. This patch of
clouds appears associated with a weak disturbance forecast to move
into western SD later this afternoon.
Downstream across SD, forecast soundings show very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates developing as temperatures rise into the 100s F.
Expecting initially isolated to widely scattered storms to develop
near the Black Hills, as convective temperatures are breached.
Models show the gradual development of a cluster moving east across
SD early this evening. Have increased severe-wind probabilities to
account for observational and model-based trends towards an MCS
capable of peak gusts in the 75-90 mph range. This activity will
probably slowly weaken towards the MN/IA/SD border but perhaps
continue into early overnight with a wind threat.
...MT...
Isolated to scattered storms will likely form near the higher
terrain of southern MT later this afternoon with a gradual increase
in storm coverage as this moves east during the early evening. A
hot and well-mixed boundary layer will support severe gusts with the
stronger cores and associated outflow. There is some indication
this activity will cluster and potentially reach parts of
eastern/southeast MT by the late evening.
...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...
Conditional severe potential exists across parts of the Upper
Midwest spanning Minnesota to Upper Michigan into Wisconsin. Models
continue to show low storm chances as mid-level heights rise through
the late evening. Nonetheless, appreciable heating of a seasonably
moist boundary layer will result in strong potential buoyancy later
today into tonight. Elongated hodographs will support organized
storms capable of a wind/hail threat. Given a muted diurnal storm
signal in models, the greater chance for isolated storms appears to
be associated with warm advection activity late tonight.
...Northeast NV/northern UT/eastern ID...
Storm development is expected during the afternoon across parts of
northeast Nevada, along the western periphery of the upper ridge.
These storms will spread into adjacent parts of southeast Idaho and
northwest Utah with time. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the
stronger downdrafts.
...South-central/southeast AZ...
High-based convection is again expected across southeast Arizona
during the afternoon, with initial downburst potential. A modest
enhancement to easterly flow along the southern periphery of the
upper ridge may allow for localized strong to severe wind gusts to
spread westward into parts of south-central Arizona, before
convection weakens tonight.
$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
-
From COD Weather ProcessorACUS01 KWNS 271651
SWODY1
SPC AC 271649
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM LINES
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail
are expected across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight.
More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind are possible in the
Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast
Arizona.
...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A large upper ridge remains present today over the central
Plains/Rockies, with moderately strong northwest flow aloft from the
Midwest into the OH Valley. A very moist and unstable low-level air
mass resides from WI/IL into MI/IN/OH, where mostly clear skies will
result in hot afternoon temperatures and MLCAPE values over 3000
J/kg. Multiple clusters of intense thunderstorms are ongoing over
parts of WI tracking southeastward. These storms will move through
this reservoir of high CAPE, leading to the potential for an active
severe weather event today. However, details of how these clusters
evolve are uncertain.
Vertical shear across this region will support supercell structures,
capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes this
afternoon. However, the greater concern is if storms can congeal
into a southeastward bowing system and that sweeps across Lower MI,
eastern IL, IN, and western OH. Several morning CAM solutions
indicate that risk, with storms spreading into KY overnight before
weakening. Unfortunately, this synoptic pattern does not lend
itself to a high-confidence convective forecast.
...High Plains...
Widespread clouds are affecting parts of western NE this morning.
However, strong heating will occur north and south of these clouds,
leading to afternoon thunderstorms. The most active area will
likely be over the Black Hills region where damaging winds and hail
are possible. Farther south, widely scattered high-based
thunderstorms will affect eastern CO/western KS with a risk of
damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Moore.. 07/27/2026
$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
-
From COD Weather ProcessorACUS01 KWNS 061328
SWODY1
SPC AC 061326
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS...
CORRECTED FOR WIND LINES
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable primarily
of a severe-wind threat will be possible this afternoon and evening
over parts of Ozarks and Great Plains. Isolated strong to locally
severe gusts capable of wind damage are possible from the
Mid-Atlantic northward into New York.
...Ozarks westward into the southern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level anticyclone centered over
AZ/UT and a broad trough over the Upper Midwest favoring modest west-northwesterly mid to high-level flow across the central Plains.
Several clusters of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
from the mid MS Valley and lower MO Valley into the OK-KS border
region. Much of this activity is located to the north of a residual
front and outflow draped from the TX Panhandle east-northeast into
the mid MS Valley. South of the boundary, an appreciably moist
airmass, featuring 50s F dewpoints west to lower 70s east, will heat
in areas void of convection and related cloud debris. It is
uncertain how much influence morning showers/storms will have across
the Slight Risk area. Nonetheless, model forecast soundings show
moderate destabilization occurring by mid-late afternoon across much
of this region. Isolated to widely scattered storms will
preferentially develop near the effective front/outflow. Some storm organization is possible with the main threat being isolated to
widely scattered severe gusts. Have adjusted the level 1 intensity
for wind to northern OK westward into the southern High Plains where
steep low-level lapse rates are forecast. A couple of multicell
clusters may eventually evolve during the early evening. A relative
minimum in storm activity may occur over parts of the TX Panhandle
in between storms over the northeast NM/western part of the TX
Panhandle and higher coverage of storms farther east over northern
OK into the Ozarks.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
Mid-level flow will be southwesterly over the Northeast today. At
the surface, a trough will be located from the Atlantic Coastal
Plains of Virginia north-northeastward into the southeastern New
York. As surface temperatures warm today, thunderstorms will
develop in the foothills of the Appalachians, moving
east-northeastward into the lower elevations and toward the surface
trough. Surface dewpoints near the trough will be in the lower to
mid 70s F, which will contribute to moderate destabilization by
early afternoon (MLCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg). Some of the stronger
water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of an isolated risk for wind
damage.
...Western Nebraska/southern South Dakota...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the north-central U.S. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will set up from western Nebraska into far southern South
Dakota, where dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Near this axis, model
forecasts show a pocket of moderate instability this afternoon with
MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Although large-scale ascent will be weak,
any cell that can initiate near the instability axis could be
capable of producing isolated severe gusts/large hail.
..Smith/Bentley.. 08/06/2026
$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
-
From COD Weather ProcessorACUS01 KWNS 181412
SWODY1
SPC AC 181410
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...
CORRECTED FOR WIND CIG1 LINE ORIENTATION
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the
lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible from the Northern Rockies into the central High Plains, and
eastward into the Midwest and southern Lower Michigan. Damaging
gusts could also occur across parts of Mississippi and Alabama.
...Central Plains into Lower MO Valley...
Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing
across south-central/southeast NE. This activity is likely
reinforcing an outflow boundary from an earlier MCS that extends
from northwest KS into the NE/KS/MO border vicinity. These showers
and thunderstorms are expected to continue southeastward over the
next few hours, while gradually diminishing in coverage and
intensity. How this outflow modifies will influence the thunderstorm
potential across northern KS this afternoon. If the boundary does
not wash out, there could be a region of notable convergence that
develops across in the northwestern/north-central KS between the
outflow (reinforced by an approaching cold front) and a heat-driven
surface low that develops across western KS. Even with this
potential convergence, convective initiation is uncertain. Most
guidance maintains warm low/mid level temperatures, with the
resultant capping suppressing any thunderstorm development. Steep
lapse rates, moderate deep-layer vertical shear, and strong buoyancy
are expected north of the boundary, and there is a conditional risk
for large to very large hail and strong downdrafts if any updrafts
can mature.
A more certain scenario is expected farther east across eastern KS,
where evening thunderstorm development is anticipated as the
low-level jet increases. Steep lapse rates and moderate vertical
shear support the potential for thunderstorms capable of large hail
during the initially more cellular mode. These storms will likely
cluster quickly, with a trend towards upscale growth into a
forward-propagating MCS which then moves into MO. Damaging gusts
will become the primary risk once this occurs.
...Northern Rockies through the Central High Plains...
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress southeastward from
British Columbia/Alberta into the northern Rockies. Thunderstorm
development is anticipated across the northern Rockies as this wave
interacts with the destabilized and buoyant airmass across the
region. Moderate westerly flow will accompany this wave as well,
supporting the potential for more organized storm structures and the development of several line segments. These widely scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to progress eastward/southeastward this afternoon/evening, with additional development possible from WY into
the central High Plains. The moderate westerly flow aloft, high
storm bases, and steep low-level lapse rates support the potential
for strong to severe wind gusts as these storms progress eastward/southeastward.
...Southern WI/northern IL into Lower MI...
Low-level moisture is expected to increase across the Midwest ahead
of an approaching cold front, resulting in moderate buoyancy by the
late afternoon. Convergence along the front will be weak but still
sufficient for convective initiation, with the combination of
moderate buoyancy and moderate westerly flow aloft supporting strong
to severe storms. An initially more cellular mode could yield large
hail within the strongest storms. A quick transition towards more
linear modes is anticipated, with damaging gusts becoming the
primary severe risk within any strong line segments.
...MS/AL...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across MS and AL
as a weak vorticity maximum progresses southeastward into the warm,
moist, and unstable environment in place across the region. Vertical
shear will be weak, and an outflow-dominant, multicellular mode is
expected. Even so, some clustering into one or more line segments
appears probable, resulting in scattered thunderstorm coverage.
Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively high cloud bases support
the potential for strong downdrafts with any more robust convection.
..Mosier/Bunting.. 08/18/2026
$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
-
From COD Weather ProcessorACUS01 KWNS 210648
SWODY1
SPC AC 210646
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE MIDWEST AND THE CAROLINAS...
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and
severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts
and hail, also are possible across parts of the Midwest. Scattered
to numerous storms with damaging wind gusts are possible over the
Carolinas and Southeast.
...Central Plains...
Mid-level ridging over the western US is forecast to intensify,
strengthening northwesterly flow aloft over much of the central US.
Several embedded disturbances will pass overhead with the enhanced northwesterlies through the day. A surface low will move
southeastward through the Great Lakes as a weak trailing cold front
moves southward through the central Plains and Midwest.
Ahead of the front, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will
shift eastward across the central Plains toward the Mid-MO Valley
atop a corridor of rich low-level moisture. Diurnal destabilization
should result in 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SD to NE. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Black
Hills southeastward along the cold front. Elongated/straight
hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear will favor initial supercells.
Large to very large hail (some greater than 2 inches diameter) will
be possible. With time, a forward propagating cluster or two may
develop and move southeast across parts of NE and KS with the
potential for severe gusts (a few near 70-80 mph). It is unclear
exactly how far southeast any storms will persist overnight, but any
more substantial clustering could allow at least an isolated severe
threat to continue into early Saturday.
A much drier and hotter environment over the High Plains to the west
could also support isolated to widely scattered high-based storms
from eastern CO into western KS. Very steep lapse rates in the
lowest 2-3 km with modest buoyancy aloft could allow a few severe
gusts.
...Midwest...
Beneath the upper trough over the western Great Lakes, cool
mid-level temperatures and robust surface moisture should result in
moderate destabilization from WI into eastern IA and northwest IL.
Scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon ahead of the cold front
spreading southeastward. Enhanced northwesterly flow with deep-layer
shear of 30-40 kt will promote a mix of organized clusters and
supercells. The large buoyancy will support a risk for damaging
gusts and some hail.
...Southeast and Gulf Coast...
A broad upper trough will move across the central US into parts of
the southern Appalachians while a weak cold front moves southward
from the mid Atlantic today and tonight. Weak ascent from the upper
trough and near the front should focus diurnal thunderstorm activity
across the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Warm surface
temperatures and plentiful boundary-layer moisture will support
large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) through the afternoon and evening
despite modest mid-level lapse rates. With scattered to numerous
storms expected, a few organized clusters may emerge with a risk
primarily for damaging wind gusts. Slight enhancement of the
westerly flow aloft could also support some isolated hail with the
stronger updrafts.
Farther south and west, a very humid and warm air mass is forecast
to become strongly unstable by early afternoon across the lower MS
Valley and Gulf Coast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected along prior outflows and a weak, southward moving cold
front from East TX into LA/MS. The very strong buoyancy and high
PWAT content will support clustering and strong downdrafts with
sporadic damaging gust potential. Otherwise, weak vertical shear
will limit overall organization.
..Lyons/Weinman.. 08/21/2026
$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
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