ACUS11 KWNS 141824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141824=20
TXZ000-142100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Big Bend and Edwards Plateau
into Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 141824Z - 142100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along/ahead of a dryline this
afternoon will pose a risk for large to very large hail and perhaps
a tornado or two. A watch will likely be needed within the next
couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery and GLM Flash data
indicate ongoing thunderstorm development across the Chisos
Mountains within the Texas Big Bend region. Additional thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon along a dryline across much
of West Texas and across the Sierra del Carmen in northern Mexico.
Ahead of this dryline, surface temperatures in the low/mid-80s F and
dewpoints in the mid-60s F underneath steep mid-level lapse rates
are supporting 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE (locally greater). Effective
bulk shear of 35-45+ kts and straight, elongated hodographs will
support supercells (both left- and right-moving) capable of large to
very large hail of 2-3+ inches in diameter and severe wind gusts. A
gradually strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will likely support
at least some increase in the tornado threat later this evening,
especially with any persistent, discrete supercell(s); however, the
core of the low-level jet is forecast to be displaced farther to the
northeast. Thus, the magnitude of the tornado threat remains
somewhat uncertain at this time. Regardless, watch issuance will
likely be needed by 21z.

With time, some gradual upscale growth/clustering should occur with
ongoing storms, with an associated increase in the potential for
severe wind gusts.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 04/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5xdSRQEAH76tSQM6mofu-Lt_u5ynROSUWvwVBwPYQ3oZxsOobQFnVdxf0O9zXNvkHIQcarlL9= ZqrJUx4cTCVdlosWM0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 29240278 29050292 28950320 29200328 29920317 31950219
32480174 32990115 33240047 33219980 33049926 32809907
32549902 31809967 31200022 30590082 30160132 29880156
29650193 29700241 29510262 29240278=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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