ACUS11 KWNS 141803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141803=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-141930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern and eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141803Z - 141930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Multiple damaging gusts may accompany an MCS over the next
few hours. While the efficiency in severe gust production is in
question, convective trends will be monitored for the need of a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Deep-moist convection has developed and become
established immediately ahead of an eastward tracking MCV. This MCS
will track eastward along a corridor of modest deep-layer shear and
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the relatively lower-end buoyancy/shear
parameter space, it is not clear how efficient the MCS will be at
producing damaging or especially severe gusts. However, KCLE
cross-sectional storm relative velocity data does depict weak
descending rear-inflow features, and the deep-layer shear vector is
oriented roughly normal to the orientation of the leading line. As
such, some damaging (and perhaps severe) gust potential exists.
There is also a chance for an instance or two of hail. Convective
trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance,
but the severe threat may be too isolated to warrant an issuance.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 04/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-TbKS9NTHoqvIH1rmq-Ivug5YVKq3tPRgdwVH8eYWmPFJaf_OCEvskPLpTREVBLdlbTmnrEJw= mjwkZUfSXt1Mg1Xe6E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40517981 40378100 40378187 40518238 40698264 40898287
41088295 41298279 41428234 41808096 41898011 41767919
41377898 40827929 40517981=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)