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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0111

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Feb 21 18:45:34 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 211845
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211844=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-212115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0111
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1244 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of central/southern GA into southern SC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 211844Z - 212115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado are
    possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment has recently become better
    organized across parts of east-central GA. Deep-layer flow/shear (as
    sampled by the KJGX and KCLX VWPs) remains favorable for organized
    convection, and MLCAPE has increased into the 1000-1500 J/kg range
    donwstream of this bowing segment, along/south of a cold front.
    However, while this bowing segment has taken on a somewhat more
    favorable north-south orientation, the front continues to sag
    southward immediately ahead of the most organized part of the line.
    This may temper severe-wind potential to some extent, though locally
    damaging wind remains possible, especially if the ongoing bowing
    segment can propagate along (rather than just north of) the front. A
    brief tornado also cannot be ruled out if any part of the line can
    persistently remain organized and surface-based, though generally front-parallel flow may continue to favor a general undercutting
    trend with time.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 02/21/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8mML0yuwAgPwFHhpOsdV-Rk0whUVnuhXE2Y8WsirZ5DjcegLisXLlnRx_IsU4Gcn22vVaVH4g= zHpCaLZE7Kn8vmqDjs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 31788093 31828320 31668432 31678496 32108494 32308446
    32528376 32688303 33068232 32938063 32728006 32158061
    31788093=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)