ACUS11 KWNS 211534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211534=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-211730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0934 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southeast AL into central/southern GA and
southern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211534Z - 211730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some uptick in the localized severe threat is possible
through the morning into early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment with a history of producing
localized wind damage is moving into west-central GA this morning,
with other loosely organized convection trailing southwestward into south-central AL. This convection is generally moving along or just
north of a sharp baroclinic zone draped from southern MS into
central AL/GA and southern SC. Midlevel lapse rates are generally
modest at best, but modest diurnal heating and MLCAPE approaching
1000 J/kg (with a similar magnitude of MUCAPE immediately north of
the front) should help to sustain deep convection through the
morning.=20

Area VWPs depict rather strong deep-layer shear and moderate
southwesterly low-level flow, which will continue to be favorable
for occasionally organized storm structures. However, with a
tendency for the outflow-reinforced cold front to sag southward with
time and potentially undercut the strongest convection, the
organized severe threat may remain isolated through the morning.=20

Locally damaging wind appears to be the most likely short-term
hazard, though marginal hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest
embedded updrafts. Low-level shear/SRH is sufficient for some
brief-tornado threat, though this potential is conditional on
maintenance of surface-based convection along or ahead of the
sagging front.

..Dean/Hart.. 02/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7KwAk3xNis4EkMt26soLm9Au2wOs9cGB945mUMynjcWSz_cz-i6RqclGLDTsMqheEW77UZPZL= LiZrq74ODVQqMbH03I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31998635 32488649 33058479 33358463 33338409 33288227
33328163 33098120 32818107 32568123 32218217 31978406
31898472 31998635=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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