ACUS11 KWNS 201812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201811=20
NCZ000-202015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 201811Z - 202015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong convective gusts may accompany a broken band
of convection over the next 1-2 hours, and an isolated severe gust
cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A broken convective band will continue to push eastward
across portions of eastern North Carolina over the next 1-2 hours.
Favorable low-level moisture is in place ahead of this band with
dewpoints in the mid-60s F across the Coastal Plain; however, warm
temperatures aloft are helping to temper available buoyancy, with
latest mesoanalysis indicating MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Despite the
generally limited buoyancy, modestly steep low-level lapse rates and
strong westerly flow aloft, including 50+ kts of flow within the 1-2
km AGL layer as sampled by the MHX VWP, will support the risk for an
isolated severe gust over the next couple of hours. This risk will
decrease with eastward extent as the convective band encounters an
increasingly stable maritime air mass along the coast and nearshore
waters.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 02/20/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8CTkBU062H1mOdcKsh41TSzNoynqbljmwgp4xwGAZMye2rKV45NY2DJgKNt5829Vb032M1y6y= Ctu2-M1hhvcEAupSuU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34817920 35417840 35807756 36137664 36137618 35897568
35387588 34827626 34467676 34097744 34037802 34257889
34657920 34817920=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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