ACUS11 KWNS 201828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201827=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-202300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Areas affected...Northern/eastern NY into parts of VT/NH/MA

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 201827Z - 202300Z

SUMMARY...Occasional moderate to locally heavy snow rates are
possible this afternoon. A transition to sleet and/or freezing rain
is possible along the southern periphery of the precipitation
shield.

DISCUSSION...An extensive area of winter precipitation is ongoing
early this afternoon across parts of northern/eastern NY into New
England, with occasional observations of heavy snow noted earlier
from Albany into parts of western MA/CT. This winter precipitation
is occurring within a region of deep ascent driven by a favorable
overlap of low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence, in
advance of a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across
the Great Lakes. This area of deep ascent and winter precipitation
should continue to gradually shift northeastward through the
afternoon.

Low-level temperature profiles are somewhat marginal across the
region, especially in areas of terrain-favored downslope flow.
However, strong ascent will help to maintain snow as the primary
precipitation types within the heavier bands, potentially resulting
in localized snow rates approaching 1 inch per hour at times. Some
transition to sleet and/or freezing rain will be possible along the
southern periphery of ongoing precipitation, where ascent gradually
weakens with time but some low-level warm advection persists.=20

Later this afternoon, a cold front approaching from the west will
allow a changeover to snow where above-freezing temperatures are
currently observed across parts of north-central NY, near and
downstream of Lake Ontario.

..Dean.. 02/20/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9gID7WF_g7dUQbDB3N_xMMFlDaxWrwgJlqBsN0JnW4pPz5Hs4gYsY9-u2asFz1XSJWAXHKNAH= Hl9zuXVzqeKbb8cLJE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 42677083 42097133 42287270 42877393 43417507 43697595
44177608 44417585 44937509 44597369 43967235 43527146
43267111 42677083=20


=3D =3D =3D
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