ACUS11 KWNS 192056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192056=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-192300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Illinois...southern
Indiana...and northern Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...

Valid 192056Z - 192300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.

SUMMARY...Storm intensity will continue to gradually increase over
the next 1-2 hours with additional development expected across the
watch area. Modest buoyancy and favorable shear profiles will
continue to support a threat for all severe hazards across WW0010,
with some increase in tornado potential expected into this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually increased in coverage over
the past 1-2 hours, primarily over northern/central Kentucky, with
several discrete/semi-discrete supercells noted across the area.
While only a few isolated instances of marginally severe hail have
been noted thus far, gradual strengthening has been observed with
some cells as surface heating/moistening coupled with cold
temperatures aloft has yielded a modestly unstable air mass (MLCAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg) overlapped by favorable deep layer shear profiles
(effective bulk shear of 50+ kts). Farther west, latest guidance
continues to depict additional thunderstorm development and
strengthening across the western portions of the watch area.=20

As storms continue to strengthen, all severe hazards will be
possible, with steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs
supporting the threat for large hail and favorable low-level veering
wind profiles (0-1 km SRH of 100-150+ m2/s2 per regional VWP)
supporting a risk for tornadoes. While the gradual loss of diurnal
heating is expected to contribute to low-level stabilization with
time later this evening, strengthening flow is expected to support
additional increases to low-level hodograph curvature. The favorable
shear profiles and increasing SRH will support an increasing tornado
threat over the next couple of hours, with the potential for a
strong tornado or two.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 02/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6SLbfUoXFOdIV5zUNQWRd-XZNpAxTjH-Ip2u0y9zVHm-OMySs6zcmudEusSpDGT-7QFLx6vPy= Fthc5rJ8y2twrVmlLs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 38388901 38748914 39158914 39428881 39488813 39438725
39228630 39058575 38948538 38798494 38418408 37918370
37448389 37178469 37248566 37408700 37508788 37688830
38008869 38388901=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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