ACUS11 KWNS 292310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292310=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-300115-
Mesoscale Discussion 2022
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025
Areas affected...Central High Plains
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 604...
Valid 292310Z - 300115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 604
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening.
Isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible.
DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorm clusters have evolved across
northeast NM into southwest KS ahead of a short-wave trough. This
feature is advancing into western CO/NM and should encourage ongoing
activity to spread slowly downstream this evening. However, latest
diagnostic data suggests these clusters are rooted within the most
buoyant air mass (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and will gradually advance
beyond the primary corridor of instability that extends from eastern
NM into western KS. MRMS data suggests the most robust updrafts
could be generating hail at times, but the more likely scenario may
actually be gusts as lapse rates are not that steep across this
region. In the absence of a pronounced LLJ this activity should
gradually weaken later this evening.
..Darrow.. 08/29/2025
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!57SvMwv3WARBK4RTNn9DtuUGVPr5jC2yjbC-dCxhqP93UT5zQtjwRD0cYyGapJd36sckBkbJj= aoZCWJorbA_tShjqD4$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35090440 38520404 38530180 35090228 35090440=20
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
=3D =3D =3D
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