• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2022

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 29 23:10:37 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 292310
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292310=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-300115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2022
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0610 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

    Areas affected...Central High Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 604...

    Valid 292310Z - 300115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 604
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening.
    Isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorm clusters have evolved across
    northeast NM into southwest KS ahead of a short-wave trough. This
    feature is advancing into western CO/NM and should encourage ongoing
    activity to spread slowly downstream this evening. However, latest
    diagnostic data suggests these clusters are rooted within the most
    buoyant air mass (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and will gradually advance
    beyond the primary corridor of instability that extends from eastern
    NM into western KS. MRMS data suggests the most robust updrafts
    could be generating hail at times, but the more likely scenario may
    actually be gusts as lapse rates are not that steep across this
    region. In the absence of a pronounced LLJ this activity should
    gradually weaken later this evening.

    ..Darrow.. 08/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!57SvMwv3WARBK4RTNn9DtuUGVPr5jC2yjbC-dCxhqP93UT5zQtjwRD0cYyGapJd36sckBkbJj= aoZCWJorbA_tShjqD4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35090440 38520404 38530180 35090228 35090440=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)