ACUS11 KWNS 292003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292002=20
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-292130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Colorado and northeast New
Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 292002Z - 292130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue developing this afternoon over the higher-terrains and
adjacent plains. Eventually a few stronger clusters or supercells
may evolve with a risk for damaging gusts and some hail. A WW is
possible but uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Weak upslope flow and strong diurnal heating of a moist
air mass is support scattered thunderstorm development over portions
of the central Rockies this afternoon. Weak ascent from a glancing
shortwave trough and continued upslope should allow for additional
development over the next several hours. While low and mid-level
lapse rates aren't particularly steep, heating and upper 50s to mid
60s F dewpoints are supporting moderate MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) over
the southern high Plains.

As convection intensifies this afternoon a 35-45 kt of bulk-shear
are in place to support storm organization. A few organized clusters
or supercell structures could evolve with an initial risk of
damaging gusts and some hail. CAM guidance has trended more
aggressive this afternoon, showing further storm development/upscale
growth into this evening, which could support one or more linear
clusters with a locally greater damaging wind threat.

While confidence in the convective evolution is low owing to
somewhat nebulous forcing for ascent, storm coverage is expected to
increase over the coming hours. A broadly favorable severe
environment with continued destabilization also suggests the severe
threat is likely increasing. Portions of southeastern CO, southwest
KS and northeast NM will be upgraded to a level 2/5 Slight Risk at
20z. A WW is also being considered.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/29/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8sOYKxeWbs70Wi5nSoRujheic_8hHsU0lUbyu7G_fFtXCXiwZ1_IIYDTFe2drHz6ZzABr521Q= tERLPDYqUB640qWGSM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37380536 38750434 39050297 38270218 37070234 35300310
34350379 34250434 34540511 36330555 37380536=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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