ACUS11 KWNS 291914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291913=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-292115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2020
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...portions of Nebraska...Southern South Dakota
Northeastern Colorado and far northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291913Z - 292115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon/evening. A few supercells may organize with a risk for
hail and damaging gusts. A WW is being considered.

DISCUSSION...As of 1910 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed initial convective development was underway across parts of
the central Plains. Weak ascent from a shortwave trough exiting the
Rockies will continue to overspread a warming air mass ahead of a
weak lee trough/low over western NE. With little remnant inhibition
(from the 18z LBF sounding), continued diurnal heating will result
in gradual destabilization with menial mid-level lapse, generally
less than 7 C/km. Despite the poor lapse rates, MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg
should be sufficient for scattered strong to occasionally severe
storms. Elongated hodographs, owing to 40-50 kt of deep-layer flow,
will support storm organization into clusters and a few supercells.
Hail will be possible along with damaging winds given the high PWAT
air mass.

Confidence in the timing and general convective evolution is low
owing to modest forcing for ascent. The poor lapse rates also
suggest storm organization may be somewhat slow initially as
updrafts gradually build in intensity. However, CAM guidance does
show stronger, likely organized, storms eventually evolving over
portions of central and southern NE later this afternoon. Given the
expected increase in storm coverage and potential for organized
supercells with a severe risk, a WW is possible.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/29/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ynYIBhV_7ulhJcm5HTx0KmBT3MivlYBuRR_2U2V-LXj9ACpbZtyBEs-zem3oSAkvgYlA6AWp= yGz201qrbGzd3Pc4yo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40159973 39920004 39370089 39050265 39710345 40730280
41410243 42730189 43470141 43630041 43469957 42329845
41189879 40159973=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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