ACUS11 KWNS 281856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281855=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-282130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Areas affected...Red River Valley toward the Arklatex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281855Z - 282130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A corridor of stronger storms may yield locally severe
gusts or marginal hail through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A front enhanced by ongoing convection currently
extends from southwest OK toward the Red River and near Texarkana,
and continues to show gradual southward progress. Warm/moist air
south of this front is spreading northeastward across TX and toward
the front, with renewed thunderstorm development noted northwest of
Paris, TX.

While midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep, low 70s F
dewpoints and temperatures near 90 F are contributing to at least
1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel west to northwest flow of 30-35 kt atop
the frontal zone results in effective deep-layer shear near 35 kt.=20
As such, the storms near Paris are expected to persist, and may grow
upscale over the next few hours. Locally strong to severe gusts may
occur, along with hail generally at or below 1.00".

..Jewell/Mosier.. 08/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5PHf5rfTFbDy0D0Dy_MhjwfBK8I-0ak-s_h2BQNK1mhmGpqmENDOo2zwW3JVGNgfIOw8RwASN= 51v5Aa0eMLpq_MOMDw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34089547 33709388 33479328 33239305 32629327 32429394
33349551 33729591 34039579 34089547=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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