ACUS11 KWNS 271918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271918=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-272145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Areas affected...Southwest Minnesota and far eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271918Z - 272145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage should increase through early
evening across southwest Minnesota and perhaps far eastern South
Dakota. A strong to severe thunderstorm or two is possible, but
watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a band of growing cumulus
focused along a subtle warm frontal zone from eastern SD into
south-central MN. Vertical development of the cumulus has increased
over the past hour (with occasional lightning flashes noted in at
least one deeper convective tower) as modest daytime heating slowly
reduces inhibition and ascent ahead of a weak upper-level wave
(noted in water-vapor imagery and regional VWP observations) glances
the region. Additional convective development should become more
likely through late afternoon/early evening as temperatures continue
to warm into the mid/upper 70s and the upper wave overspreads
southern MN. VWP observations from KFSD have consistently sampled
around 30 knots of 0-4 km shear, and recent RAP forecast
soundings/mesoanalysis estimates suggest MLCAPE is approaching 1000
J/kg. While fairly modest, this environment is sufficient for some
storm organization if mature convection can become established
within the weakly forced regime. More intense cells may be capable
of severe gusts as well as large hail, though the coverage and
overall intensity of severe thunderstorms is expected to remain
fairly limited through early evening.

..Moore/Gleason.. 08/27/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-zRxZRX6I9z0cRP8WFmIaSbRdaR7dwVItnJA7BJLDypjkmdiaG2TmGpBXtSfO40to0iN0YNVH= ZMnEtoOBYsktCuhtmQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 45079626 45039549 44929487 44769447 44589405 44329363
44039334 43729336 43529346 43429383 43419435 43449505
43539565 43659608 43829655 44129698 44399719 44659725
44939717 45069685 45079626=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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