ACUS11 KWNS 251938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251937=20
AZZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251937Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across southeast Arizona may pose
a severe wind risk through the late afternoon and early evening
hours as they spread west/northwest. Watch issuance is not expected
given the localized nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery shows a steady increase in
coverage and depth of a cumulus field over the higher terrain of
southeastern AZ. Recent LightningCast output shows modest, but
increasing, probability for lightning flashes across the region and
a few flashes have already been noted with one deeper convective
tower. Glancing ascent associated with an upstream MCV over the
northern Gulf of California, combined with continued daytime
heating, should aid in additional thunderstorm development within
the next 1-2 hours. Southeasterly mid-level flow will steer isolated
to scattered convective cells northwestward into lower elevations.
Modest northwesterly low-level winds across south-central AZ will
support some degree of hodograph elongation and promote some
potential for storm organization and longevity. While small hail is
possible, the predominant hazard will be strong to severe gusts
given steep low-level lapse rates between 8-9 C/km. Based on the
convective environment and recent CAM guidance, sporadic gusts
upwards of 50-70 mph appear possible with the stronger downbursts;
however, this threat should remain fairly localized given an overall
modest kinematic environment.

..Moore/Mosier.. 08/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4co-SB-a0Lxu8TSw3pzXOhIsQ5UjL3Ha4zi3hjpcvUHcUU0h7ZvFGfV0zm3E5bwIrlkc-sPSO= NAciHQrbn4T1FuqSeQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON 31671233 31921251 32791262 33261255 33571218 33641147
33531100 33351063 33051026 32671000 32100981 31770971
31480969 31270981 31271108 31671233=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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