• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1603

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 8 16:36:02 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 081634
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081634=20 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-081830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1603
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1134 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

    Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 081634Z - 081830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the Blue Ridge Mountains is
    expected in the next 1-2 hours. The threat for strong to severe
    winds will increase through the afternoon hours as storms spread
    east across the Mid-Atlantic region. Watch issuance is likely to
    address this concern.

    DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows building cumulus
    within the central to southern Appalachians as temperatures continue
    to warm into the upper 80s and low 90s within a very moist air mass
    (dewpoints and PWAT values across the region are near or above the
    90th percentile for mid-July). As temperatures continue to warm into
    the low to mid 90s over the next few hours, lingering inhibition
    will erode and support increasing probability for thunderstorm
    development within the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge Mountains
    and/or along a weak surface pressure trough in the lee of the
    terrain. Additional heating will also support SBCAPE values
    increasing to around 2000-3000 J/kg as well as steepening
    near-surface lapse rates. This thermodynamic environment will
    promote strong water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging/severe
    downburst winds. Modest flow aloft will generally limit deep-layer
    shear magnitudes and the potential for well-organized convection,
    but a few long-lived clusters or convective bands seem plausible,
    especially considering the weak capping that should promote
    scattered thunderstorm development. The wind threat should peak by
    late afternoon when thermodynamic profiles will be optimized and as
    convection reaches maturity along the I-95 corridor.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/08/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6lyMrGAIh-gCIlGSttmOCpswagOzV7gNVxiS9TP1jNR6EAfDKnNQEcqsASJMkMKJ_OKAB_mOC= pHokAtIcsOstYJ-5Jc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 38627916 40017720 41327521 41487474 41457429 41107383
    40727373 40287383 37077842 37057864 37127886 37887936
    38137945 38367942 38627916=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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