ACUS11 KWNS 081634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081634=20 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-081830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 081634Z - 081830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the Blue Ridge Mountains is
expected in the next 1-2 hours. The threat for strong to severe
winds will increase through the afternoon hours as storms spread
east across the Mid-Atlantic region. Watch issuance is likely to
address this concern.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows building cumulus
within the central to southern Appalachians as temperatures continue
to warm into the upper 80s and low 90s within a very moist air mass
(dewpoints and PWAT values across the region are near or above the
90th percentile for mid-July). As temperatures continue to warm into
the low to mid 90s over the next few hours, lingering inhibition
will erode and support increasing probability for thunderstorm
development within the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge Mountains
and/or along a weak surface pressure trough in the lee of the
terrain. Additional heating will also support SBCAPE values
increasing to around 2000-3000 J/kg as well as steepening
near-surface lapse rates. This thermodynamic environment will
promote strong water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging/severe
downburst winds. Modest flow aloft will generally limit deep-layer
shear magnitudes and the potential for well-organized convection,
but a few long-lived clusters or convective bands seem plausible,
especially considering the weak capping that should promote
scattered thunderstorm development. The wind threat should peak by
late afternoon when thermodynamic profiles will be optimized and as
convection reaches maturity along the I-95 corridor.

..Moore/Thompson.. 07/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6lyMrGAIh-gCIlGSttmOCpswagOzV7gNVxiS9TP1jNR6EAfDKnNQEcqsASJMkMKJ_OKAB_mOC= pHokAtIcsOstYJ-5Jc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 38627916 40017720 41327521 41487474 41457429 41107383
40727373 40287383 37077842 37057864 37127886 37887936
38137945 38367942 38627916=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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