ACUS11 KWNS 071955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071955=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-072200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071955Z - 072200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado are
possible this afternoon/evening. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar show convection developing
along a cold front positioned from northeast North Dakota extending southwestward, and along a warm front extending into northeast
Minnesota. This activity is developing in a region where skies have
remained clear in proximity to passing cirrus clouds to the
immediate south. In addition, cool mid-level temperatures are
overspreading the region, in association with an upper-level trough.
These factors are contributing to destabilization that is yielding
MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg. Ample effective shear of 40-45 kt is
also present, associated with the aforementioned trough.

Storms are expected to continue increasing in coverage and severity
throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. A tornado will also
be possible with any storm that can favorably interact with
aforementioned warm front. Coverage of storms remains uncertain in
the short term, given the extent of the cirrus shield limiting
destabilization. However, at least some CAM solutions suggest
greater coverage may materialize. Thus, convective trends will be
monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon/evening.

..Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8d0AB3n4dJ_aAb1anz6qsK0nJqWbI4z0HmuAPlSiJHBIB-7sYEi68DzLWhCdTET5TyMWN4Fry= 51P4C_d2zBh_zv3Eoc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 46209904 46929958 47909867 48659858 48929753 48199615
46769546 46129652 46209904=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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