• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1574

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 6 12:15:39 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 061215
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061214=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-061415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1574
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0714 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

    Areas affected...southwest South Dakota and north-central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061214Z - 061415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms should persist for another couple of
    hours before weakening. Isolated hail and a damaging wind gust or
    two will remain possible in the near term. A watch is not currently
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue this morning across southwest
    South Dakota along the southwest portion of a remnant MCS that moved
    across this region overnight. These thunderstorms appear to be
    driven by isentropic ascent focused atop a residual cold pool left
    over from the overnight convection. This shows up as strong warm-air
    advection centered around 700 MB in regional mesoanalysis.
    Mesoanalysis also indicates a rich CAPE reservoir to the southwest
    of the ongoing storms, within the thunderstorm source/inflow region,
    providing additional buoyancy. With time, diurnal heating should
    begin to modify the existing cold pool and weaken the isentropic
    ascent/WAA leading to a downward trend in thunderstorm intensity.
    Before this weakening occurs, lapse rates do not appear particular
    steep this morning per RAP-model forecast soundings, and an
    isotherms layer extends upward from the surface to around 800 mb.
    This should limit the severe potential to isolated hail and perhaps
    a damaging wind gust or two -- realistically only in the most
    intense cores.

    A watch is not anticipated.

    ..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/06/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9lt4alW3xQ1CFjs5tdtCivmeS04-ECA--fqRtJytxcJ1Lj6vG3-yYWWvOnbn_1MlquKiJHEOj= HTz3tmuH0eg-or0P18$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42700288 43310326 43780292 43860217 43680064 43250033
    42590021 42300061 42170165 42700288=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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