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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0945

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 24 02:54:31 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 240254
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240254=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-240500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0945
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0954 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

    Areas affected...western and central KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 240254Z - 240500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms should develop during the next few
    hours across parts of western to central Kansas. Large hail will be
    the primary initial hazard, with potential for severe gusts as
    upscale growth occurs along the southern flank. Severe thunderstorm
    watch issuance appears likely.

    DISCUSSION...The initial stages of elevated convective development
    appear to be underway over west-central KS. This elevated activity
    should develop within a northwest/southeast orientation along the
    buoyancy gradient. A very pronounced EML with mid-level lapse rates
    of 9-9.5 C/km will hold to the southwest of the convective plume,
    aiding in downstream large hail potential. The convective mode
    should quickly evolve into clusters given orientation of large-scale
    ascent relative to the slightly north of west mid/upper-level wind
    profile. While most 00Z CAM guidance is suggestive of a hail-only
    severe threat, the HRRR and RRFS continue to indicate potential for
    a forward-propagating MCS and bowing structures which would yield a
    severe wind threat in the early morning towards south-central KS.

    ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ciftKig00s9OLI4cCrq0npg27ms1u9F8U4RXZSFwueiSfyHYkd5CzdFfy20BJ0UjLg_3ur4x= Imv2TsIu4qH7DYYUFE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 38240065 37739982 36949816 37079765 37379737 37739739
    38179769 38789856 39009907 39099972 39000042 38750075
    38510087 38240065=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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