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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0942

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 23 22:10:31 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 232210
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232209=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0942
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0509 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

    Areas affected...eastern CO and western NE/KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313...

    Valid 232209Z - 240015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase substantially
    into early evening across the central High Plains. Very large hail
    to around baseball size, a tornado or two, and localized severe
    gusts are possible.

    DISCUSSION...A trio of sustained supercell corridors is anticipated
    through early evening across the central High Plains. The first and northernmost is underway over the southwest NE Panhandle/northeast
    Colorado border area. With smaller surface temperature-dew point
    spreads, this corridor will have the best chance at producing a
    tornado or two through 01-02Z, especially with any right-mover in
    northeast CO. A separate sustained supercell should evolve off the
    Palmer Divide in east-central CO and eventually spread into
    west-central KS. The southernmost and later developing convection
    should occur along the southeast CO/southwest KS border and may
    eventually shift east-southeast. With a stout EML yielding
    increasing MLCIN with eastern extent, it is likely that only a few
    supercells will be sustained. But the very steep mid-level lapse
    rates (near 9 C/km) and 45-50 kt effective shear will support
    intense mid-level rotation with very large hail as the primary
    hazard.

    ..Grams.. 05/23/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8-0q55MsJv-whJy1oFRksoeFr1j-0jko5UPW-C43dPMIrmEZe0pFJbbY4bfFRpQDdlRq1SC3E= mBa18ZvXNmOP2XuEQs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41320365 41640362 41980339 42150259 41880201 40710153
    39130132 37590121 37040119 36900163 37120242 37460238
    38200265 39100326 40270324 40820349 41320365=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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