ACUS11 KWNS 230120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230119=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-230215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0937
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...northeastern Colorado...western
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 230119Z - 230215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind and hail risk possible over the next couple
of hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms have developed and
strengthened across eastern Wyoming near a gradient of MLCAPE around
250-500 J/kg. Within this region, moisture and forcing remains
overall limited, with dew points in the upper 40s to 50s. Lack of
deeper moisture, loss of daytime heating, and lack upper level
support will likely keep the overall severe threat low. Given deep
layer shear around 45-50 kts, a few briefly organized storms may
produce instances of hail and gusty wind will be possible,however, a
watch is unlikely to be needed.

..Thornton/Hart.. 05/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9y29eFSQf_ejCVJTUuWSF3E-eAc-FdwASpZDuccWFO1TcZ5dDK1WcVSKMuvkJu7bV48kM9NOj= wpc2sYmt3yFWifN3_c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41070474 41720461 42000410 41870318 41720312 40980319
40340340 40210412 40710474 41070474=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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