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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0936

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 23 00:06:25 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 230006
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230006=20
    TXZ000-230130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0936
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0706 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

    Areas affected...the Big Country/Concho Valley to central TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

    Valid 230006Z - 230130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A mixed severe hail/wind threat should persist through at
    least mid-evening as a linear cluster spreads across the Big
    Country, Concho Valley, and central Texas. The need for a downstream
    severe thunderstorm watch is uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...Amalgamating convective outflows from earlier
    supercells have congealed over western north TX and adjacent Low
    Rolling Plains. Despite a minimum in buoyancy across the Big
    Country, low-level southeasterlies have begun strengthening per the
    DYX VWP. This should result in greater low-level moisture across
    central TX eventually being advected ahead of the line after sunset.
    But this initial dry pocket lowers overall confidence in what
    otherwise should be a more favorable setup to maintain an organized
    severe wind threat through the rest of the evening. As such, the
    need for a downstream severe thunderstorm watch is uncertain.

    ..Grams/Hart.. 05/23/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-J0ffgmoELG0-YCEON96oWTu4SqzDJeOSWuymtD9Lh_MU8riHUDlPJRB6F64sYv6Q5_PKLd5w= wRWB6gFVN7Fmxr5fYo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32070121 32570024 33059951 33409925 33379866 33039814
    32489728 32219726 31979729 31579761 31239811 31119873
    31129991 31250045 31540119 32070121=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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