ACUS11 KWNS 222138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222138=20
TXZ000-222315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...a portion of north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

Valid 222138Z - 222315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
continues.

SUMMARY...A long-lived supercell with a significant severe hail and
wind threat will likely track south-southeast into early evening,
and extend downstream of WW 312 in a part of north Texas.

DISCUSSION...The deepest of the several supercells ongoing across
western North TX is likely to persist over the next few hours as it
tracks south-southeast along a pronounced MLCAPE gradient across the
Big Country into north TX. While 0-3 km winds are weak, an easterly
component along the fringe of mid to upper 60s surface dew points
will remain sufficient for strongly buoyant inflow. Recent WoFS
guidance has been consistent in maintaining a long-lived supercell
track capable of both significant severe hail and wind.

..Grams/Hart.. 05/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9817grcbIBfBkOluxoYFY66plNakZRULdYrrjzEvtgjZnuLxxb228KlNBWFsYdQfs59PQmjXr= gDb-ng2lTXXVAilCyw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33619848 33139781 32329730 31809731 31589784 31589812
31659844 31869855 32569880 33519888 33619848=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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