ACUS11 KWNS 221845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221844=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-222045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0931
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...parts of western North Texas and adjacent
southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221844Z - 222045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development may initiate west through
southwest of the Wichita Falls area during the next hour or two.=20
Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a new severe
weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is ongoing to the
west-southwest of Wichita Falls TX, where a corridor of stronger
heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing has contributed to weakening
inhibition for boundary-layer parcels characterized by CAPE up to
3000 J/kg. At the same time, southwestward propagating gravity
waves and outflow, generated by the more intense earlier convection
southwest of Ardmore OK, are approaching from the northwest and
could support at least isolated intensifying thunderstorm
development during the next hour or two. In the presence of
moderate to strong west-northwesterly deep layer shear, this may
include an evolving supercell posing a risk for large hail and
strong damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9kuR8aQg0kzGhSW1olSEEnfpw-L_Sl9OGlzg43bEOBAGyZ67LhBNUEBkkLjmAaghmt8pXjfaH= ouf_2vqhJ4fZm0FK6M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33919977 34309889 34069831 33509816 33249849 33189937
33049978 33340014 33919977=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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