ACUS01 KWNS 020211
SWODY1
SPC AC 020210

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storm development will be possible into the
overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains, with
large hail and severe gusts. A tornado will be possible. Late
tonight, an organized line of thunderstorms with severe wind gusts
and isolated large hail is expected to develop across parts of
central and eastern Kansas.

...Southern Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a southwest flow pattern over
the central U.S., with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs
moving through the flow. One shortwave trough appears to be in
south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma. This feature is likely
supporting isolated convective development to the east of a
Kansas-Oklahoma dryline. To the east of the dryline early this
evening, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F across south-central
Kansas and near 60 F over much of Oklahoma. MLCAPE to the east of
the dryline is estimated by the RAP to be between 1000 and 2000
J/kg. Moistening will likely continue to occur across the southern
Plains this evening, and convective initiation will be possible
along a front moving southeastward across the region. RAP forecast
soundings late this evening show strong deep-layer shear and steep
mid-level lapse rates. This will support isolated severe storm
development with large hail.

After midnight, some model solutions produce scattered thunderstorms
across parts of central and northern Oklahoma. If this occurs, then
a threat for supercell with large to very large hail, and wind
damage will be possible. A tornado threat could also develop.

Further southwest into parts of the low Rolling Plains of
north-central and southwest Texas, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible this evening. Convective coverage is expected to
remain very limited due to a lack of large-scale ascent. If a cell
can initiate and grow upscale, then large hail will be possible. A
few severe wind gusts could also occur.

...Central Plains...
The latest surface analysis has a 986 mb low in northwest Kansas. A
cold front is moving through western Kansas, with a warm front
moving through northeast Kansas. A dryline extends southward from
the low across west-central Kansas. Isolated convective initiation
may take place near the dryline this evening across south-central
and southeastern Kansas. A north-to-south axis of moderate
instability is analyzed across central Kansas, where MLCAPE is
estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, regional
WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range, with a
curved hodograph in the lowest 3 km AGL. Also, forecast soundings in
central Kansas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment could support isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.
A tornado threat will also be possible, especially as the storms
move eastward into a strengthening low-level jet later tonight. A
strong tornado could occur. Severe storms will also be possible
further north into parts of southeast Nebraska. These storms should
be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

Later tonight, convection is expected to develop along and ahead of
a cold front moving southeastward across central Kansas. Model
forecasts suggest that a line will remain organized through late in
the period, possibly affecting eastern Kansas. Severe wind gusts
will be possible near and just ahead of this convective line.

...North-central California...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough
moving eastward across northern California. Ahead of this feature,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from the northern
Sierras southward into the Sacramento Valley. The airmass along this
corridor is weakly unstable, according to the RAP. Forecast
soundings in the Sacramento Valley have SBCAPE of 250 to 500 J/kg,
0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots,and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7
C/km. This environment may support a marginal severe threat this
evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020128
SWODY1
SPC AC 020126

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX...

CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still
expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains,
mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity,
accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging
wind gusts.

...01Z Update...
Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of
convection across the south central Great Plains tonight.
Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of
the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a
developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward
across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red
River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability,
beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the
lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based
around 850 mb.

As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable
updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further
intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into
portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around
05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within
the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing
thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong
deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level
hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential
to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado.

At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool
may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while
supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the
preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible
that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with
sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern
Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however,
still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the
potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output
more modest.

Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe
thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas
southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as
inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling.

..Kerr.. 05/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100118
SWODY1
SPC AC 100116

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE MOBILE BAY VICINITY...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ERROR

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe risk may develop tonight over portions of the
northern Gulf Coast.

...Discussion...
Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a split-flow regime over
North America. A mid-level trough over the Mid-Atlantic states will
move northeast to southern New England, while a slow-moving
mid-level low meanders over the north Gulf Coast through early
Saturday morning. Model guidance indicates weak cyclogenesis over
the northern Gulf of America tonight with this low moving to near
Mobile Bay by daybreak Saturday. A strengthening of low-level
warm-air advection and associated flow may aid supporting an
environment where a few stronger storms develop tonight from the
shelf waters inland into the region centered on the FL Panhandle.
Forecast soundings show weakly buoyant profiles with some
enlargement to the hodograph. A transient supercell capable of a
brief tornado/wind damage near the coast would be the primary
threat.

Elsewhere, convective overturning across parts of the Southeast and
the onset of nocturnal cooling will continue to lead to weakening
thunderstorm activity this evening.

..Smith.. 05/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181723
SWODY1
SPC AC 181722

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE IN MAINE

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this
afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern
Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible.

...KS/OK...
A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a
band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM
into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into
western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air
mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the
upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong
southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector
will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense
supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show
diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today.

The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity
will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central
KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with
forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote
a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending
slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the
dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However,
any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards.

...Western North TX...
Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be
over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures
in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These
storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the
evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible.

...MS/AL/GA...
A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon
from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs
are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries
present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development
this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a
risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells.

..Hart.. 05/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070115
SWODY1
SPC AC 070113

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING

...SUMMARY...
A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms
are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern
Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight
hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging
wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact
parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening.

...01Z Update...
Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a
seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized
by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment
supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing
as of 01Z.

A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock
appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave
perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is
forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley
overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies,
westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25
kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest
strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could
potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by
forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection,
this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with
slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels.
So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow
upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley
overnight remains unclear.

There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing
for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and
southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive
increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending
from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central
Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within
low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air
around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger
capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development
may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating
supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by
continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air
characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg.

This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level
baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma.
As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this
air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to
produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210118
SWODY1
SPC AC 210116

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA...

CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF
DISCUSSION

...SUMMARY...
A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and
tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving
through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong
to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and
far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across
the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will
move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left
exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass
over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for
vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are
expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is
forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North
Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening.

At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern
South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into
southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within
this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with
MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe
storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually
intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings
along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota
this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and
looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be
favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes.
A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most
likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is
expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts
likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible
ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop
across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley
this evening into tonight.

As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few
hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells
further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the
ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand
in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota,
ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be
supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind
damage and possible tornadoes.

A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take
place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track
eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is
expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper
Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible
along parts of the MCS track.

...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the
south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located
in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage
over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move
northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings
from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening
have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely
support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into
the stronger instability over the High Plains.

..Broyles.. 06/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211650
SWODY1
SPC AC 211649

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING IN SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible tonight across New York and New England. Isolated severe
storms will also be possible across portions of the Great Lakes, the
northern High Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.

...Great Lakes...
Strong/intermittently severe thunderstorms continue across the
northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan this morning, associated with
the long-lived severe MCS that moved across the northern
Plains/upper Midwest Friday afternoon and night. Although the
immediate downstream environment is only slowly warming due to the
presence of mid/high-level clouds, some slow destabilization is
occurring. This will maintain at least some continued risk for a
strong/severe storm through early afternoon across northern Lower MI
and adjacent waters of Lake Huron.

Across the MI Upper Peninsula, a warm front is expected to sharpen
across this area, along with rising heights in the wake of the convectively-augmented vorticity maximum now moving through southern
Ontario. Heating of a very moist boundary layer will result in
strong to extreme instability (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg),
however the presence of a pronounced cap should suppress storms
during the afternoon. As a modest low-level jet strengthens this
evening, isolated elevated severe storms will be possible on the
immediate cool side of the front, within an environment supportive
of organized storms including supercells. Large hail and damaging
winds will be possible.

...NY into Western New England...
Thunderstorms moving across Lake Huron/southwestern Ontario at 16z
will continue east, and most morning CAM guidance suggests storms
will remain west of western NY. Of greater concern will be the
potential for storms to move into northern NY/western New England
late tonight ahead of a southeast-moving cold front, where modest destabilization and strong deep-layer shear will support storm
organization. Morning hi-res guidance supports a loosely organized
linear structure, and perhaps supercells with an attendant risk for
strong winds and severe hail late tonight. The Level 2/Slight Risk
has been expanded east into northern VT based on this expectation.

...Eastern MT into Western ND...
Isolated thunderstorms have weakened over eastern MT this morning,
with additional isolated redevelopment possible this afternoon and
tonight as ascent associated with minor perturbations within
southwest mid-level flow moves across the area. Modest instability
and strong deep-layer shear will support updraft organization and a
risk for severe hail and/or damaging gusts.

...Central NE/SD/ND into the Upper Midwest...
Surface low currently over central SD is expected to move little
this afternoon, with low-level moisture advection throughout the
warm sector east of this low. Air mass recovery/modification
following the overnight MCS is expected, and this will contribute to
a sharpening warm-frontal zone. Strong to extreme buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE greater from 3000 to 5000 J/kg) is expected by this evening
along this warm front from the ND/SD border vicinity eastward
through central MN into northern WI. Some low-level convergence is
anticipated in this region, but height rises will occur within the
large-scale environment. Additionally, warm mid-level temperatures
(16 to 17 deg C at 700 mb) are expected, capping the airmass to deep
convection this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible mainly this evening as a low-level jet strengthens, with a
risk for severe wind and isolated hail.

..Bunting.. 06/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220106
SWODY1
SPC AC 220104

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...

CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE IN SOUTHEAST

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible tonight across New York and New England. Isolated severe
storms will also be possible across parts of the Great Lakes and the
central to northern Plains.

...Northeast/New York/Great Lakes...
Latest water vapor imagery has a belt of strong anticyclonic flow
located from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and
Northeast. A ridge-riding mid-level shortwave trough is located over
Ontario. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place from New York
into western New England, where surface dewpoints are in the lower
to mid 60s F. The low-level moisture will contribute to continued destabilization across the region, in the form of elevated
instability, this evening into tonight. As the shortwave trough
moves southeastward toward the Northeast, low-level flow will
markedly strengthen. In response, convective coverage is expected to
increase, and a line of thunderstorms appears likely to develop late
this evening. This line is forecast to move southeastward across New
York and western New England from late evening into the overnight
period.

Overnight, RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line in northern New
York have a low-level temperature inversion, with MUCAPE in the 1500
to 2000 J/kg range. Effective shear is forecast to be around 40
knots. This should be favorable for a severe threat. Although much
of the line could be elevated, isolated large hail and severe gusts
will still be possible, mainly with the more intense component of
the line. The line is expected to move through the western New
England and the Hudson River Valley late tonight, approaching
southern New England toward 12Z.

...Central Plains...
Southwest mid-level flow is in place across much of the central
Plains early this evening. At the surface, a moist airmass is
located over much of the High Plains, with surface dewpoints mostly
in the 60s F. In response to low-level warm advection, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the western edge
of this moist airmass. This convection is expected to move
northeastward across Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota this
evening. In addition to moderate instability, mid-level lapse rates
are very steep. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will
likely support a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe
gusts will be possible.

...Northern High Plains...
A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, will move
northeastward into the northern High Plains tonight. Ahead of the
trough, a post-frontal airmass is in place with the western edge of
a moist airmass located over the western Dakotas. As large-scale
ascent increases across the northern High Plains later tonight,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected. These storms will
move northeastward across eastern Montana and western North Dakota,
mainly after midnight. Weak to moderate instability, combined with
steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear should support a
marginal severe threat. Hail and a few severe gusts will be
possible.

..Broyles.. 06/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251627
SWODY1
SPC AC 251625

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
EASTERN GEORGIA....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA....

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRID ERROR IN SC

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts are possible from parts of the Carolinas into the
Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible
from the northern High Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic.

...Southeast US...
An unusually favorable thermodynamic pattern has evolved across the
southeast US today, with very steep mid-level lapse rates, cool
temperatures aloft, and strong daytime heating. Surface dewpoints
in the 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3500 J/kg.

Large scale forcing is weak, suggesting convective initiation will
be poorly focused. However, most 12z CAM solutions show several
clusters of storms through the afternoon spreading southward from NC
into SC and eastern GA. Vertical shear is rather weak, suggesting
storms will be rather disorganized. However, there is a conditional
risk for an active day across the ENH risk, with considerable
coverage of damaging wind reports possible. As storms spread
southwestward this evening across GA, the risk of locally damaging
wind gusts will continue.

...NE/IA/MN...
Visible satellite imagery shows a developing differential heating
zone extending from south-central NE into central IA. Full sun to
the south of this zone will lead to strong instability and scattered
afternoon thunderstorm development. A band of 30-40 knot
southwesterly flow aloft atop this zone, coupled with strengthening
southerly low-level winds, will encourage organized/bowing clusters
of storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. A tornado or two
cannot be ruled out.

...CO/KS...
Thunderstorms will once again develop off the higher terrain of
CO/WY this afternoon and spread into the Plains. Model guidance
suggests steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for severe
wind potential as these storms track toward northwest KS/southwest
NE by early evening.

...OH/WV...
Hot and humid conditions are present today across much of southern
OH into northern WV. Visible satellite imagery shows a developing
CU field, which may result in scattered slow-moving afternoon
thunderstorms. Winds aloft are rather weak, but the strongest cells
in this corridor may be capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

..Hart.. 06/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080610
SWODY1
SPC AC 080609

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...

CORRECTED FOR REGIONAL HEADER

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid Atlantic.
More isolated activity is expected across portions of the Plains
into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Middle Atlantic...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave
trough over the upper MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest
model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the central
Great Lakes region by the end of the period. As the short wave
advances east, a corridor of higher PW (currently extending from AR
into the upper OH Valley) will be shunted downstream as a
low-amplitude disturbance ejects toward the Mid Atlantic. While some suppression of the height field can be expected late, it appears the
weak disturbance should be the primary mechanism for encouraging
somewhat stronger southwesterly flow which would extend as far south
as central VA. Even so, 0-6km bulk shear is only expected to be on
the order of 20-25kt, but favorably oriented for clusters and short
line segments. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates, but
high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely,
especially with any organized clusters. Convective temperatures will
be breached by 17-18z as readings climb into the mid 80s, and
scattered thunderstorms should readily develop from central PA into
central VA. This activity will then propagate toward the Mid
Atlantic Coast with an attendant risk for damaging winds.

...Plains...

Upper ridge is forecast to hold across the southwestern U.S. through
the day1 period; although, northwesterly flow is expected to
increase a bit along the eastern periphery of this feature over the
High Plains. As a result, high-level diffluent flow will be noted
across the southern Plains into southern MO. At the surface,
low-level boundaries/convergence will prove weak, and left-over
convective debris will likely prove influential in late-afternoon
development. Early this morning, an MCS was propagating south across
eastern NE/southwest IA. This complex will likely advance into
southeast KS/southwest MO by sunrise. It's not entirely clear how
organized this cluster will be at the start of the period, but
convective outflow will likely contribute to additional development
later in the day. Strong boundary-layer heating will also aid
isolated thunderstorm development across the High Plains of eastern
WY/CO/NM. This activity will spread southeast during the evening
with a risk for hail/wind.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110622
SWODY1
SPC AC 110621

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...ADJACENT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are likely to impact a corridor from the lower
Missouri Valley into southern portions of the Great Lakes region
this afternoon and evening, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind
gusts, a few tornadoes and some hail.

...Discussion...
While mid/upper ridging across the subtropical into southern
mid-latitudes remains at least a bit suppressed for the time of
year, models indicate that the stronger westerlies will remain
confined to the higher latitudes. It does appear that one notable
short wave trough, now digging to the lee of the Canadian and
northern U.S. Rockies, will progress eastward along the central
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity today through tonight, and gradually
pivot from a positive to neutral tilt. As it does, preceding weak
mid-level troughing, and at least a couple of embedded convective perturbations, are forecast to accelerate northeastward within weak
to modest ambient flow backing to a southwesterly component across
the lower Missouri Valley vicinity into the Great Lakes region.

At the same time, northwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained
with weak height falls across the southern Rockies into adjacent
Great Plains, while gradual mid-level height rises are forecast
across the Appalachians into Atlantic Seaboard.

In lower-levels, the primary short wave trough may support a modest
developing surface low across northwestern Ontario, with cooler and
drier air in its wake overspreading much of the northern Great
Plains by 12Z Saturday. Another low emerging from the central Great
Plains is forecast to migrate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley
toward the upper Great Lakes, along an initially diffuse low-level
baroclinic zone.

...Lower Missouri Valley into Great Lakes...
The low-level baroclinic zone may still be a focus for weakening
convective development at the outset of the period. However, as the
convection dissipates further, models suggest that the boundary will
become better defined with strengthening differential heating.
Surface dew points near and above 70F, beneath modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates, are forecast to contribute to CAPE on the
order of 2000-3000 J/kg along and south of the boundary, gradually
tapering to the north, beneath a lingering belt of convectively
augmented mid-level flow (on the order of 30-50 kt in the 700-500 mb
layer). Coupled with modest, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
developing in advance of the migratory low, the environment may
become conducive to supercell structures posing a risk for a few
tornadoes across parts of northern Missouri and southeastern Iowa
into northern Illinois, before damaging wind gusts become the more
predominant potential hazard as convection tends to grow upscale
into clusters through this evening.

...Southern Rockies into the Great Plains...
Thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest low-level moisture,
but with generally steep lapse rates, including fairly deep
boundary-layer mixing, may become conducive to scattered
thunderstorm clusters posing a risk for severe wind and hail late
this afternoon and evening. This may be aided by modest shear
beneath the northwesterly mid-level flow, with thunderstorm activity
mostly initiating off the higher terrain of the Front Range through
Sangre de Cristo Mountains. However, low-level convergence within
surface troughing across southern Kansas through the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandle vicinity may also become sufficient for thunderstorm
initiation during the peak late afternoon heating.

..Kerr/Thornton.. 07/11/2025

$$

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