• DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 2 02:12:04 2025
    ACUS01 KWNS 020211
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 020210

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0910 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

    Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

    CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GRAPHIC

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storm development will be possible into the
    overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains, with
    large hail and severe gusts. A tornado will be possible. Late
    tonight, an organized line of thunderstorms with severe wind gusts
    and isolated large hail is expected to develop across parts of
    central and eastern Kansas.

    ...Southern Plains...
    The latest water vapor imagery shows a southwest flow pattern over
    the central U.S., with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs
    moving through the flow. One shortwave trough appears to be in
    south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma. This feature is likely
    supporting isolated convective development to the east of a
    Kansas-Oklahoma dryline. To the east of the dryline early this
    evening, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F across south-central
    Kansas and near 60 F over much of Oklahoma. MLCAPE to the east of
    the dryline is estimated by the RAP to be between 1000 and 2000
    J/kg. Moistening will likely continue to occur across the southern
    Plains this evening, and convective initiation will be possible
    along a front moving southeastward across the region. RAP forecast
    soundings late this evening show strong deep-layer shear and steep
    mid-level lapse rates. This will support isolated severe storm
    development with large hail.

    After midnight, some model solutions produce scattered thunderstorms
    across parts of central and northern Oklahoma. If this occurs, then
    a threat for supercell with large to very large hail, and wind
    damage will be possible. A tornado threat could also develop.

    Further southwest into parts of the low Rolling Plains of
    north-central and southwest Texas, isolated thunderstorm development
    will be possible this evening. Convective coverage is expected to
    remain very limited due to a lack of large-scale ascent. If a cell
    can initiate and grow upscale, then large hail will be possible. A
    few severe wind gusts could also occur.

    ...Central Plains...
    The latest surface analysis has a 986 mb low in northwest Kansas. A
    cold front is moving through western Kansas, with a warm front
    moving through northeast Kansas. A dryline extends southward from
    the low across west-central Kansas. Isolated convective initiation
    may take place near the dryline this evening across south-central
    and southeastern Kansas. A north-to-south axis of moderate
    instability is analyzed across central Kansas, where MLCAPE is
    estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, regional
    WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range, with a
    curved hodograph in the lowest 3 km AGL. Also, forecast soundings in
    central Kansas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
    environment could support isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.
    A tornado threat will also be possible, especially as the storms
    move eastward into a strengthening low-level jet later tonight. A
    strong tornado could occur. Severe storms will also be possible
    further north into parts of southeast Nebraska. These storms should
    be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

    Later tonight, convection is expected to develop along and ahead of
    a cold front moving southeastward across central Kansas. Model
    forecasts suggest that a line will remain organized through late in
    the period, possibly affecting eastern Kansas. Severe wind gusts
    will be possible near and just ahead of this convective line.

    ...North-central California...
    The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough
    moving eastward across northern California. Ahead of this feature,
    isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from the northern
    Sierras southward into the Sacramento Valley. The airmass along this
    corridor is weakly unstable, according to the RAP. Forecast
    soundings in the Sacramento Valley have SBCAPE of 250 to 500 J/kg,
    0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots,and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7
    C/km. This environment may support a marginal severe threat this
    evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.

    ..Broyles.. 04/02/2025

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 2 01:29:33 2025
    ACUS01 KWNS 020128
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 020126

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

    Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
    ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH
    TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX...

    CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC

    ...SUMMARY...
    Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still
    expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains,
    mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity,
    accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging
    wind gusts.

    ...01Z Update...
    Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of
    convection across the south central Great Plains tonight.
    Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of
    the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a
    developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward
    across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red
    River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability,
    beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the
    lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based
    around 850 mb.

    As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable
    updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further
    intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into
    portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around
    05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within
    the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing
    thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong
    deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level
    hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential
    to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado.

    At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool
    may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while
    supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the
    preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible
    that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with
    sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern
    Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however,
    still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the
    potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output
    more modest.

    Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe
    thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas
    southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as
    inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling.

    ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 10 01:19:07 2025
    ACUS01 KWNS 100118
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 100116

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0816 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

    Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
    PANHANDLE AND THE MOBILE BAY VICINITY...

    CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ERROR

    ...SUMMARY...
    An isolated severe risk may develop tonight over portions of the
    northern Gulf Coast.

    ...Discussion...
    Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a split-flow regime over
    North America. A mid-level trough over the Mid-Atlantic states will
    move northeast to southern New England, while a slow-moving
    mid-level low meanders over the north Gulf Coast through early
    Saturday morning. Model guidance indicates weak cyclogenesis over
    the northern Gulf of America tonight with this low moving to near
    Mobile Bay by daybreak Saturday. A strengthening of low-level
    warm-air advection and associated flow may aid supporting an
    environment where a few stronger storms develop tonight from the
    shelf waters inland into the region centered on the FL Panhandle.
    Forecast soundings show weakly buoyant profiles with some
    enlargement to the hodograph. A transient supercell capable of a
    brief tornado/wind damage near the coast would be the primary
    threat.

    Elsewhere, convective overturning across parts of the Southeast and
    the onset of nocturnal cooling will continue to lead to weakening
    thunderstorm activity this evening.

    ..Smith.. 05/10/2025

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 18 17:23:46 2025
    ACUS01 KWNS 181723
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 181722

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

    Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
    AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

    CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE IN MAINE

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this
    afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern
    Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible.

    ...KS/OK...
    A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a
    band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM
    into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into
    western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air
    mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the
    upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong
    southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector
    will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense
    supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
    tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show
    diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today.

    The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity
    will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central
    KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with
    forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote
    a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending
    slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the
    dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However,
    any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards.

    ...Western North TX...
    Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be
    over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures
    in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These
    storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the
    evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible.

    ...MS/AL/GA...
    A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon
    from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs
    are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries
    present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development
    this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a
    risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells.

    ..Hart.. 05/18/2025

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 7 01:16:17 2025
    ACUS01 KWNS 070115
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 070113

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

    Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
    THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN
    TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL
    OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...

    CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING

    ...SUMMARY...
    A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms
    are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern
    Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight
    hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging
    wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact
    parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening.

    ...01Z Update...
    Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a
    seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized
    by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment
    supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing
    as of 01Z.

    A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock
    appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave
    perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is
    forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley
    overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies,
    westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25
    kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest
    strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could
    potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by
    forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection,
    this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with
    slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels.
    So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow
    upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley
    overnight remains unclear.

    There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing
    for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and
    southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive
    increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending
    from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central
    Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within
    low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air
    around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger
    capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development
    may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating
    supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by
    continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air
    characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg.

    This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level
    baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma.
    As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this
    air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to
    produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 21 01:18:28 2025
    ACUS01 KWNS 210118
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 210116

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

    Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

    ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA...

    CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF
    DISCUSSION

    ...SUMMARY...
    A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and
    tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi
    Valley.

    ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
    Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving
    through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong
    to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and
    far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across
    the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will
    move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left
    exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass
    over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for
    vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are
    expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is
    forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North
    Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening.

    At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern
    South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface
    dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into
    southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within
    this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with
    MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe
    storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually
    intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings
    along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota
    this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and
    looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be
    favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes.
    A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most
    likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is
    expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts
    likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible
    ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop
    across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley
    this evening into tonight.

    As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few
    hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells
    further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the
    ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand
    in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota,
    ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be
    supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind
    damage and possible tornadoes.

    A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take
    place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track
    eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is
    expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper
    Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible
    along parts of the MCS track.

    ...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains...
    Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the
    south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located
    in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage
    over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move
    northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings
    from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening
    have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely
    support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into
    the stronger instability over the High Plains.

    ..Broyles.. 06/21/2025

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 21 16:51:49 2025
    ACUS01 KWNS 211650
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 211649

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1149 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

    Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
    PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...

    CORRECTED FOR SPELLING IN SUMMARY

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail will be
    possible tonight across New York and New England. Isolated severe
    storms will also be possible across portions of the Great Lakes, the
    northern High Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.

    ...Great Lakes...
    Strong/intermittently severe thunderstorms continue across the
    northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan this morning, associated with
    the long-lived severe MCS that moved across the northern
    Plains/upper Midwest Friday afternoon and night. Although the
    immediate downstream environment is only slowly warming due to the
    presence of mid/high-level clouds, some slow destabilization is
    occurring. This will maintain at least some continued risk for a
    strong/severe storm through early afternoon across northern Lower MI
    and adjacent waters of Lake Huron.

    Across the MI Upper Peninsula, a warm front is expected to sharpen
    across this area, along with rising heights in the wake of the convectively-augmented vorticity maximum now moving through southern
    Ontario. Heating of a very moist boundary layer will result in
    strong to extreme instability (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg),
    however the presence of a pronounced cap should suppress storms
    during the afternoon. As a modest low-level jet strengthens this
    evening, isolated elevated severe storms will be possible on the
    immediate cool side of the front, within an environment supportive
    of organized storms including supercells. Large hail and damaging
    winds will be possible.

    ...NY into Western New England...
    Thunderstorms moving across Lake Huron/southwestern Ontario at 16z
    will continue east, and most morning CAM guidance suggests storms
    will remain west of western NY. Of greater concern will be the
    potential for storms to move into northern NY/western New England
    late tonight ahead of a southeast-moving cold front, where modest destabilization and strong deep-layer shear will support storm
    organization. Morning hi-res guidance supports a loosely organized
    linear structure, and perhaps supercells with an attendant risk for
    strong winds and severe hail late tonight. The Level 2/Slight Risk
    has been expanded east into northern VT based on this expectation.

    ...Eastern MT into Western ND...
    Isolated thunderstorms have weakened over eastern MT this morning,
    with additional isolated redevelopment possible this afternoon and
    tonight as ascent associated with minor perturbations within
    southwest mid-level flow moves across the area. Modest instability
    and strong deep-layer shear will support updraft organization and a
    risk for severe hail and/or damaging gusts.

    ...Central NE/SD/ND into the Upper Midwest...
    Surface low currently over central SD is expected to move little
    this afternoon, with low-level moisture advection throughout the
    warm sector east of this low. Air mass recovery/modification
    following the overnight MCS is expected, and this will contribute to
    a sharpening warm-frontal zone. Strong to extreme buoyancy (i.e.
    MLCAPE greater from 3000 to 5000 J/kg) is expected by this evening
    along this warm front from the ND/SD border vicinity eastward
    through central MN into northern WI. Some low-level convergence is
    anticipated in this region, but height rises will occur within the
    large-scale environment. Additionally, warm mid-level temperatures
    (16 to 17 deg C at 700 mb) are expected, capping the airmass to deep
    convection this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be
    possible mainly this evening as a low-level jet strengthens, with a
    risk for severe wind and isolated hail.

    ..Bunting.. 06/21/2025

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 22 01:06:32 2025
    ACUS01 KWNS 220106
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 220104

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0804 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

    Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...

    CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE IN SOUTHEAST

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail will be
    possible tonight across New York and New England. Isolated severe
    storms will also be possible across parts of the Great Lakes and the
    central to northern Plains.

    ...Northeast/New York/Great Lakes...
    Latest water vapor imagery has a belt of strong anticyclonic flow
    located from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and
    Northeast. A ridge-riding mid-level shortwave trough is located over
    Ontario. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place from New York
    into western New England, where surface dewpoints are in the lower
    to mid 60s F. The low-level moisture will contribute to continued destabilization across the region, in the form of elevated
    instability, this evening into tonight. As the shortwave trough
    moves southeastward toward the Northeast, low-level flow will
    markedly strengthen. In response, convective coverage is expected to
    increase, and a line of thunderstorms appears likely to develop late
    this evening. This line is forecast to move southeastward across New
    York and western New England from late evening into the overnight
    period.

    Overnight, RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line in northern New
    York have a low-level temperature inversion, with MUCAPE in the 1500
    to 2000 J/kg range. Effective shear is forecast to be around 40
    knots. This should be favorable for a severe threat. Although much
    of the line could be elevated, isolated large hail and severe gusts
    will still be possible, mainly with the more intense component of
    the line. The line is expected to move through the western New
    England and the Hudson River Valley late tonight, approaching
    southern New England toward 12Z.

    ...Central Plains...
    Southwest mid-level flow is in place across much of the central
    Plains early this evening. At the surface, a moist airmass is
    located over much of the High Plains, with surface dewpoints mostly
    in the 60s F. In response to low-level warm advection, isolated to
    scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the western edge
    of this moist airmass. This convection is expected to move
    northeastward across Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota this
    evening. In addition to moderate instability, mid-level lapse rates
    are very steep. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will
    likely support a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe
    gusts will be possible.

    ...Northern High Plains...
    A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, will move
    northeastward into the northern High Plains tonight. Ahead of the
    trough, a post-frontal airmass is in place with the western edge of
    a moist airmass located over the western Dakotas. As large-scale
    ascent increases across the northern High Plains later tonight,
    scattered thunderstorm development is expected. These storms will
    move northeastward across eastern Montana and western North Dakota,
    mainly after midnight. Weak to moderate instability, combined with
    steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear should support a
    marginal severe threat. Hail and a few severe gusts will be
    possible.

    ..Broyles.. 06/22/2025

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 25 16:28:09 2025
    ACUS01 KWNS 251627
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 251625

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1125 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

    Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
    EASTERN GEORGIA....

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
    COLORADO INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA....

    CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRID ERROR IN SC

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe wind gusts are possible from parts of the Carolinas into the
    Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible
    from the northern High Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic.

    ...Southeast US...
    An unusually favorable thermodynamic pattern has evolved across the
    southeast US today, with very steep mid-level lapse rates, cool
    temperatures aloft, and strong daytime heating. Surface dewpoints
    in the 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3500 J/kg.

    Large scale forcing is weak, suggesting convective initiation will
    be poorly focused. However, most 12z CAM solutions show several
    clusters of storms through the afternoon spreading southward from NC
    into SC and eastern GA. Vertical shear is rather weak, suggesting
    storms will be rather disorganized. However, there is a conditional
    risk for an active day across the ENH risk, with considerable
    coverage of damaging wind reports possible. As storms spread
    southwestward this evening across GA, the risk of locally damaging
    wind gusts will continue.

    ...NE/IA/MN...
    Visible satellite imagery shows a developing differential heating
    zone extending from south-central NE into central IA. Full sun to
    the south of this zone will lead to strong instability and scattered
    afternoon thunderstorm development. A band of 30-40 knot
    southwesterly flow aloft atop this zone, coupled with strengthening
    southerly low-level winds, will encourage organized/bowing clusters
    of storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. A tornado or two
    cannot be ruled out.

    ...CO/KS...
    Thunderstorms will once again develop off the higher terrain of
    CO/WY this afternoon and spread into the Plains. Model guidance
    suggests steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for severe
    wind potential as these storms track toward northwest KS/southwest
    NE by early evening.

    ...OH/WV...
    Hot and humid conditions are present today across much of southern
    OH into northern WV. Visible satellite imagery shows a developing
    CU field, which may result in scattered slow-moving afternoon
    thunderstorms. Winds aloft are rather weak, but the strongest cells
    in this corridor may be capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

    ..Hart.. 06/25/2025

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 8 06:10:59 2025
    ACUS01 KWNS 080610
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 080609

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
    ATLANTIC...

    CORRECTED FOR REGIONAL HEADER

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid Atlantic.
    More isolated activity is expected across portions of the Plains
    into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

    ...Middle Atlantic...

    Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave
    trough over the upper MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest
    model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the central
    Great Lakes region by the end of the period. As the short wave
    advances east, a corridor of higher PW (currently extending from AR
    into the upper OH Valley) will be shunted downstream as a
    low-amplitude disturbance ejects toward the Mid Atlantic. While some suppression of the height field can be expected late, it appears the
    weak disturbance should be the primary mechanism for encouraging
    somewhat stronger southwesterly flow which would extend as far south
    as central VA. Even so, 0-6km bulk shear is only expected to be on
    the order of 20-25kt, but favorably oriented for clusters and short
    line segments. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates, but
    high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely,
    especially with any organized clusters. Convective temperatures will
    be breached by 17-18z as readings climb into the mid 80s, and
    scattered thunderstorms should readily develop from central PA into
    central VA. This activity will then propagate toward the Mid
    Atlantic Coast with an attendant risk for damaging winds.

    ...Plains...

    Upper ridge is forecast to hold across the southwestern U.S. through
    the day1 period; although, northwesterly flow is expected to
    increase a bit along the eastern periphery of this feature over the
    High Plains. As a result, high-level diffluent flow will be noted
    across the southern Plains into southern MO. At the surface,
    low-level boundaries/convergence will prove weak, and left-over
    convective debris will likely prove influential in late-afternoon
    development. Early this morning, an MCS was propagating south across
    eastern NE/southwest IA. This complex will likely advance into
    southeast KS/southwest MO by sunrise. It's not entirely clear how
    organized this cluster will be at the start of the period, but
    convective outflow will likely contribute to additional development
    later in the day. Strong boundary-layer heating will also aid
    isolated thunderstorm development across the High Plains of eastern
    WY/CO/NM. This activity will spread southeast during the evening
    with a risk for hail/wind.

    ..Darrow/Weinman.. 07/08/2025

    $$

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