ACUS11 KWNS 161439
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161438=20
WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-161615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...south-central into eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 161438Z - 161615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some damaging wind gusts are possible this morning to
early afternoon across south-central and eastern Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed along the cold front in
central Kentucky. Ahead of these storms, dewpoints are in the mid
50s with abundant sunshine. MLCAPE is currently around 250 J/kg and
may increase to around 500 J/kg by later this morning. The front is
oriented parallel to the deep-layer flow across this region which is
not overly favorable for a wind producing line of storms. However,
strong lower tropospheric flow is present (vertically increasing to
60 knots by 3km per JKL VWP) and in the presence of thunderstorms
and steepening low-level lapse rates, some of this stronger flow may
mix to the surface. A watch is not anticipated.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!69QfKp0j6SBX142BrlsPf7j89pcyeG6GyhYyU-uHAXZRgUb-VZEjtYVRUu_ycUqYkhRZcUQcc= kz4aChlQz9TUQQalyE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...

LAT...LON 36788612 37368511 37808443 38098345 38198273 38038235
37598236 36878292 36608338 36628479 36648586 36718611
36788612=20


=3D =3D =3D
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