ACUS11 KWNS 142127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142127=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-142330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana into southwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 142127Z - 142330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed within the next 1-2
hours across eastern Louisiana to southwest Mississippi as
thunderstorms develop and intensify over the region.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible and IR imagery over the past 30
minutes has shown at least two early attempts at convective
initiation across the Alexandria, LA area. Residual capping over the
region is likely limited storm initiation in the short term, but a
combination of continued low-level ascent within a subtle confluence
axis and glancing ascent from the primary synoptic wave to the north
(enhanced by a weak shortwave trough noted in low-level water-vapor
imagery and 700 mb analyses) should continue to promote isolated to
scattered discrete convection in the coming hours.
Intensification/organization into robust supercells appears probable
as convection moves into an environment characterized by
surface-based lifted indices between -8 to -9 C across eastern LA
into southwest MS. Veering winds through the lowest 1-2 km sampled
in recent KDGX and KHDC VWP observations are expected to strengthen
through the late afternoon/early evening as the low-level jet axis
strengthens and shifts east. Consequently, a tornado threat is
likely emerging downstream and will require watch issuance.

..Moore/Mosier.. 03/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-A6RUruDgklLKcKaSLcC6O4HWsbyb9LNFcaSs88KmewDj8miJKGfRxxOLdgodbwtw9i0mH-SH= CcyV_N6kd4Njrkfsno$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30889275 31989217 32989143 33179110 33249062 33159027
32889001 32488993 32088998 31559034 31169078 30819140
30649188 30619221 30659248 30719278 30889275=20


=3D =3D =3D
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