ACUS11 KWNS 050429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050428=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-050530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle...Southeast Alabama...Southwest
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 050428Z - 050530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...New Tornado Watch appears warranted.

DISCUSSION...Mid 60s surface dew points have nosed inland ahead of
the squall line across the western Florida Panhandle. This air mass
is providing a bit more buoyancy along southern portions of the MCS,
which may enhance updraft strength and potential severe. Forecast
soundings suggest near-surface based convection with 65 dew point,
but lifted parcels are still likely a bit elevated. Latest buoy data
suggests 67 dew point is just offshore and this may advance inland
ahead of the line. Given the very strong shear, there is increasing
concern for damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes. New Tornado
watch will likely be issued soon.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 03/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_NndrshtaPDEh2PEuVcaOHzliOILIrJ3zElNytYN1IRJSaP5xGCuGsg95ebdARusoEerTo2tN= t6gbEv7GWqtMnvAfHY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 29758745 31828581 31428368 29258512 29758745=20


=3D =3D =3D
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