ACUS11 KWNS 282156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282156=20
MSZ000-282300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeastern LA into central MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 720...

Valid 282156Z - 282300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development across southern MS and
southeastern LA could pose a significant tornado threat over the
coming hours. However, displaced east from the strongest synoptic
forcing, it remains unclear how persistent the threat may be until
later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Across the eastern edge of PDS Tornado Watch 720, an
isolated supercell (with recent reports of a tornado) was observed
over northeastern Franklin County MS. Additional discrete
development has been noted farther south into southeastern LA,
likely along a subtle confluence axis stretching into the northern
Gulf of Mexico. This storm has slowly organized over the last
several hours, coincident with the northward advection of a weak
warm front. An unstable air mass with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and
strong low-level shear (300-400 m2/s2 ESRH JAN DGX VAD) is
supportive of a continued severe threat. The strong low-level shear
is also conditionally supportive of a strong and long-track tornado
threat into central MS given the favorable storm mode.

However, much of this activity is displaced farther east from the
stronger synoptic forcing until later this evening. This could tend
to make the threat somewhat intermittent until stronger forcing
arrives. Thus, while the environment is favorable for a continued,
and conditionally significant severe/tornado threat, there remains
some uncertainty on the duration/longevity of the risk.

..Lyons.. 12/28/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5S_d_MFh4a7NWQPOyhJNchdOPn5VH3Hu6gGQ2scE4XGzuk0craAfVrz-3oz-mrsiKtPlwhyot= dgDElnNWs9fdCfrIcI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31779096 31879096 32409067 32649053 32848993 32758961
32608931 32428926 31608957 31328986 31129006 31009060
31079101 31319106 31779096=20


=3D =3D =3D
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