ACUS11 KWNS 262257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262257=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Areas affected...Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 715...

Valid 262257Z - 270000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 715 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to spread into central and
southern Louisiana this evening. New tornado watch appears
warranted.

DISCUSSION...Strong, negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting
across east TX early this evening. 500mb speed max is forecast to
translate across northern LA which will encourage LLJ to shift north
across the lower MS over the next 3-6hr. As this occurs, warm sector
will recover a bit across LA, especially southwestern LA where
surface dew points are rising through the mid 60s. This will
contribute to near-surface based buoyancy, that appears adequate,
for maintaining ongoing, upstream supercell activity. Latest radar
data depicts several longer-lived supercells over southeast TX that
will track northeast into a strongly sheared air mass, just east of
ww715. This evolving risk likely warrants a new tornado watch
immediately downstream.

..Darrow.. 12/26/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ROiXS8YyKv9_e3nnDaGNf871dBsk7ewegGGcatMLIiKs5y7TCz9zohw7We3i_bNgE0kH46wZ= GGkJ0iqIGhGj8bOdgM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 29739399 31679308 31409199 29729276 29739399=20


=3D =3D =3D
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