ACUS11 KWNS 122159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122158=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-122330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern Montana and western North
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 122158Z - 122330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe gusts and instances of large hail
will gradually increase over the next few hours across northeastern
Montana and western North Dakota. A severe thunderstorm watch is
likely within an hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Latest water-vapor imagery and regional VWP data
indicate the left-exit region of a midlevel jet streak overspreading
portions of north-central WY -- ahead of a deep midlevel low
centered over southwestern MT. Over the next few hours, related
large-scale ascent will overspread northeastern MT, promoting a
gradual increase in convective development. Around 50-60 kt of
midlevel south-southwesterly flow is contributing to a long/mostly
straight hodograph -- characterized by 45-55 kt of effective shear.
Despite somewhat cool post-frontal boundary-layer conditions, and
lingering inhibition at the base of a robust EML, the strong
deep-layer shear and steep midlevel lapse rates will still favor
organized clusters and embedded supercells. These storms will be
capable of producing severe gusts and instances of large hail.
Significant severe gusts (75-85 mph) will be possible, especially
with any congealing cold pools that evolve.=20

A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for portions of the area
within an hour or so.

..Weinman/Smith.. 09/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!92b3BFAGN9HqlB5WB2EVMgjxPJWPi328hgfwqyMoLYTiN61n0m355sUzYQUkjWCNBB1NmnRqv= dAV6qcBoQ06EIx2rw0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 47170755 47760759 48830747 49030725 49150660 49080371
48920330 47820298 46750333 46590388 46670668 46800734
47170755=20


=3D =3D =3D
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