• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1719

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 28 19:24:59 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 281924
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281924=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-282030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1719
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0224 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

    Areas affected...northeastern Colorado into adjacent portions of
    western and central Nebraska and northwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 281924Z - 282030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorm development is expected in
    the northeastern Colorado/southeastern Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle
    vicinity in the next hour, and then shifting/intensifying eastward
    with time. Storms should remain isolated, but increasing risk for severe-caliber wind gusts and/or hail may eventually warrant WW
    consideration.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows TCU development
    from southeastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado into
    southwestern portions of the Nebraska Panhandle. CB/storm
    development is expected within the hour across this area, as the
    boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize.=20=20

    As the convection spreads eastward with time, it will encounter a
    somewhat more unstable environment across southwestern Nebraska and
    adjacent northwestern Kansas, resulting in gradual intensification
    of the convection.

    With that said, storms are likely to remain isolated, given the
    relatively dry airmass aloft (reflected by low PW values only around
    one inch). This, combined with generally modest shear, suggests
    that overall severe potential will likely remain somewhat
    limited/localized. Still, any stronger/sustained updraft will be
    capable of producing strong/damaging wind gusts -- aided by the
    aforementioned dry air suggesting of evaporatively enhanced
    downdrafts.

    ..Goss/Gleason.. 07/28/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!54w83figmpvLOQNwPRm_j1Ucv_Yjgqo5qmTi_xkHyMsDYZzn77_ze54yTUhilqPj-sIAC3C22= LCEOq9ZM_q2YLGmdkw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

    LAT...LON 41210258 41610170 42150025 42119857 40719827 38879993
    38600173 40120231 41210258=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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