ACUS11 KWNS 152050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152049=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Eastern CO/WY...southwest SD...NE
Panhandle...extreme northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152049Z - 152215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and perhaps some hail are possible
through late afternoon. Some uptick in severe-wind potential is
possible with time into the central High Plains.

DISCUSSION...Scattered high-based convection is developing this
afternoon from near the CO Front Range into southeast WY and the
Black Hills. Low-level moisture is rather limited across the region,
but strong heating has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to near 500
J/kg. Deep-layer shear is rather modest where storms are currently
ongoing, with the exception of the Black Hills region, where
somewhat stronger deep-layer flow/shear is in place. Steep
low/midlevel lapse rates will support a threat of isolated
strong/severe gusts in the short term, with some hail potential
attendant to the strongest storms.=20

As storms move off of the higher terrain by late afternoon into
early evening, there may be some increase in severe-wind potential
into parts of the central High Plains, though uncertainty remains
regarding the extent (if any) of outflow consolidation and modest
upscale growth. Eventual watch issuance is possible if a more
organized severe-wind threat becomes evident.

..Dean/Thompson.. 07/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_84Sax8eJVV7oJMVf8HswjsglLRkjWJr2arKlTJeLaAPjn8UsooNm2Ad4nGi_sHlt55VUliCo= sOlkW3q0yuCfoWITsg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 38310270 38240376 38260443 38380491 38880504 39330532
39730545 42420526 43300503 44280364 44160244 42400201
41490178 41010171 40350170 39620171 38920199 38310270=20


=3D =3D =3D
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