Something fundamental seems to have changed recently. Although the Russian army remains large in size, its operational capabilities have declined significantly. Ukraine, on the other hand, has actually greatly increased its military striking power. In various areas, it now even appears to have a lead.

At the front, Russian troops possess only a limited number of armored vehicles. Many infantrymen must move on foot, sometimes supported by motorcycles. Ukraine, however, can deploy an enormous number of drones, which are operational on virtually every part of the front.

Last week, according to recent reports, Russia lost 21 ships in the Sea of ​​Azov, an inland sea that was long considered safe. Additionally, Ukraine has now managed to hit Russia's twenty largest oil refineries at least once. The country's largest refinery, near Omsk, about 2,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, was also hit and had to halt production.

The consequences are noticeable. Gasoline and diesel shortages are putting pressure on the Russian economy and also hindering the supply of the occupied territories, including Kherson and Crimea.

If Ukraine manages to sustain this pressure, it could have a significant impact on the further course of the war.

In three days, approximately 350 trucks were reportedly destroyed in southern Ukraine. These vehicles were transporting supplies for both the civilian population and the Russian armed forces. Ukraine has warned drivers that freight traffic in the occupied territories could be considered a military target.

The coming weeks could therefore be decisive. Can Ukraine increase the pressure to such an extent that Russia feels compelled to end the war? That is the question currently hanging over the market.

At the same time, Ukraine remains vulnerable. The shortage of anti-aircraft missiles, and particularly of Patriot systems and associated missiles, could give Russia the opportunity to launch heavier attacks on strategic Ukrainian targets once again. Precisely for this reason, air defense remains a crucial factor in the further course of the war.

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