PC sales could be set to fall this year, but Trump tariffs aren't the only reason why

Date:
Fri, 28 Feb 2025 17:57:00 +0000

Description:
Trump isnt the only reason that PC upgrades could be getting costlier and
less common, analysts say.

FULL STORY ======================================================================
- IDC has adjusted (reduced) its PC market forecast for 2025
- Windows 10 deprecation and AI PC effects arent strong enough
- 2025 predicted growth is 3.7%, compound AGR for 2025-2029 is just 0.4%

Despite the apparent resurgence of the PC market in recent months, analysts
are increasingly concerned about the future as global trends and geopolitical troubles continue to affect the industry.

Responding to recent tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by the US, IDC has adjusted its forecast and reduced the market growth to just 3.7%.

Price hikes stemming from tariffs in the US combined with subdued demand are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs," noted Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers.

PC market faces more troubles

Separately, Canalys saw the market regain some of its seasonal trends while growing 3.9% for the whole calendar 2024.

Analysts there predict AI PCs could account for up to 35% of the market in
2025 up from 23% in the final three months of 2024.

Canalys Analyst Kieren Jessop agrees with IDC: looming trade policy shifts in the US threaten to disrupt the market that accounts for around one in three shipped PCs and could hamper the upcoming commercial refresh cycle and dampen an already muted consumer outlook.

Jessop added: So far, the Trump administration has placed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, which accounts for a significant majority of laptops shipped to the US.

IDC is also concerned about the general consumer PC market, which grew just
2% in 2024. The company described the migration to Windows 11 as modest the flagship OS only accounts for around 37% of all Windows installs (via Statcounter ), compared with 60% for Windows 10.

Looking past calendar 2025, IDC is predicting annual growth rates of less
than 1% up until 2029. Compound annual growth rate for 2025-2029 is predicted to average out at just 0.4%.

======================================================================
Link to news story: https://www.techradar.com/pro/pc-sales-could-be-set-to-fall-this-year-but-trum p-tariffs-arent-the-only-reason-why

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Despite the apparent resurgence of the PC market in recent months, analysts are increasingly concerned about the future as global trends
and geopolitical troubles continue to affect the industry.

Responding to recent tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by the US, IDC
has adjusted its forecast and reduced the market growth to just 3.7%.

It sounds like fear tactics and blame-game. PCs last a long time. Forever in some cases. (Except for those who fall for Microsoft's gimmicks.) I ditched the x86 for x64 in 2019, and that thing was already 10 years old when I bought it. And I barely needed it.

I bought my kids a monster of a computer for gaming, and it's got an i7 processor and that's been around since 2008.

Instead of blaming Trump for a meager tariff on China, they should get jobs at Taco Bell so that they could make a real difference in the world ;)

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It sounds like fear tactics and blame-game. PCs last a long time. Forever in some cases. (Except for those who fall for Microsoft's gimmicks.) I ditched th
x86 for x64 in 2019, and that thing was already 10 years old when I bought it.
And I barely needed it.

They do but they don't.

I bought my kids a monster of a computer for gaming, and it's got an i7 processor and that's been around since 2008.

They must not be very serious gamers or don't play any new games. That
hobby is one thing that drives the PC market these days. If you are happy
with your old games and software, you are good. If you want to play the
latest and greatest version of whatever game is hot right now, you will eventually need an upgrade.

There are a lot of other things that have happened since 2008 that require
a lot more processor power.

A processor from 2008 won't cut it for most gamers or professional users.


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I bought my kids a monster of a computer for gaming, and it's got an i7 processor and that's been around since 2008.

They must not be very serious gamers or don't play any new games. That hobby is one thing that drives the PC market these days. If you are
happy with your old games and software, you are good. If you want to
play the latest and greatest version of whatever game is hot right now, you will eventually need an upgrade.

I know that what I'm saying doesn't sound true, but really, 2008's i7 is overkill for most games. So far we've been able to meet the hardware requirements for every game we've ever wanted to play, except for a few VR games, but we don't own VR equipment yet anyway.

A message from Intel:

"For ideal results, a machine running an Intel Core i7 processor or better with at least 8GB of RAM is sufficient for playing games and streaming at the same time."

The graphics card mainly calls the shots on which games we can play, and we're using a GEForce RTX 4060, which is almost 2 years old, with no issues at all.

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The graphics card mainly calls the shots on which games we can play, and we're
using a GEForce RTX 4060, which is almost 2 years old, with no issues at all.

You do realize that the chips on that card are probably made someplace that
is being tarriffed and those, too, will go up in price, right?


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The graphics card mainly calls the shots on which games we can play, and we're
using a GEForce RTX 4060, which is almost 2 years old, with no issues at

You do realize that the chips on that card are probably made someplace that is being tarriffed and those, too, will go up in price, right?

I didn't realize that, but I won't be buying a new graphics card any time soon. The serious gamers who want the bleeding edge graphics cards are going
to have to start learning about the needs of regular people who don't play video games and/or don't use computers. And those needs are tariffs.

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The graphics card mainly calls the shots on which games we can play,

and > we're

using a GEForce RTX 4060, which is almost 2 years old, with no issues

at
You do realize that the chips on that card are probably made someplace
that is being tarriffed and those, too, will go up in price, right?

I didn't realize that, but I won't be buying a new graphics card any time soon. The serious gamers who want the bleeding edge graphics cards are going to have to start learning about the needs of regular people who don't play video games and/or don't use computers. And those needs are tariffs.

Chips are in everything, and they're mostly made in countries Trump is putting tariffs on. Prices for all electronics will go up. the electronics that businesses need to produce and sell things in the USA will increase in price, and those increases will get passed on to consumers.

All the cloud providers prices will go up, all their customers will raise their prices on goods and services to compensate.

I thought Trump was going to stop inflation?


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I thought Trump was going to stop inflation?

IMHO, if he is not real careful, he is going to do what some of us thought Biden might do... "stop" inflation by replacing it with hyperinflation.


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I didn't realize that, but I won't be buying a new graphics card any time

oon

The serious gamers who want the bleeding edge graphics cards are going
to have to start learning about the needs of regular people who don't play video games and/or don't use computers. And those needs are tariffs.

There are a whole lot of things with chips in them that you better hope you won't need to buy anytime soon.


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soon. The serious gamers who want the bleeding edge graphics cards ar going to have to start learning about the needs of regular people who don't play video games and/or don't use computers. And those needs ar tariffs.

Chips are in everything, and they're mostly made in countries Trump is putting tariffs on. Prices for all electronics will go up. the electronics that businesses need to produce and sell things in the USA will increase in price, and those increases will get passed on to consumers.

What is the alternative then? How can we get a fair trade deal with Canada? How can we get Mexico and Canada to keep the migrants and drugs away from our borders? How do we get China to crack down on the illegal exporting of fentanyl precursors? (I recommend letting Trump have a go at this. Democrats didn't try using tariffs to solve these issues.)

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I didn't realize that, but I won't be buying a new graphics card any tim

oon

The serious gamers who want the bleeding edge graphics cards are going to have to start learning about the needs of regular people who don't pl video games and/or don't use computers. And those needs are tariffs.

There are a whole lot of things with chips in them that you better hope you won't need to buy anytime soon.

You might be right, but this thread was about "PC sales." :)

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Hello Aaron!

01 Jun 70 21:31, you wrote to me:

soon. The serious gamers who want the bleeding edge graphics

cards ar

going to have to start learning about the needs of regular

people who

don't play video games and/or don't use computers. And those

needs ar

tariffs.

Chips are in everything, and they're mostly made in countries
Trump is putting tariffs on. Prices for all electronics will go
up. the electronics that businesses need to produce and sell
things in the USA will increase in price, and those increases
will get passed on to consumers.

What is the alternative then? How can we get a fair trade deal with Canada?

You mean the trade deal that Trump negotiated with Canada during his first term?

Trump said, "The USMCA is the fairest, most balanced, and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law. ItrCOs the best agreement werCOve ever made..."

How can we get Mexico and Canada to keep the migrants and
drugs away from our borders? How do we get China to crack down on the illegal exporting of fentanyl precursors? (I recommend letting Trump
have a go at this. Democrats didn't try using tariffs to solve these issues.)

I don't think tariffs are the solution. In the end, all of us (literally) pay the price.

The money we're spending on all of this could be poured into other things that have tangible impacts. Drug rehabilitation and education to start.

I was going to suggest we do something to make the USA not look so enticing for people who are miserable living in other countries, but it looks like we're already on that path the last couple months by making the USA a place of government overreach and jack-booted oppression as well.



Mike


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How can we get Mexico and Canada to keep the migrants and
drugs away from our borders? How do we get China to crack down on the illegal exporting of fentanyl precursors? (I recommend letting Trump have a go at this. Democrats didn't try using tariffs to solve these issues.)

I don't think tariffs are the solution. In the end, all of us (literally) pay the price.

The money we're spending on all of this could be poured into other
things that have tangible impacts. Drug rehabilitation and education to start.

So instead of stopping the drugs from coming in, we'll just offer more drug rehabilitation and education programs?

That is despicable. You'd rather have people become addicts and/or die of overdose than pay a few extra dollars for the microchips that power your MSNBC viewing devices.

How do we solve the gun violence problem? Educate people about how dangerous guns are? (Sick!)

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I didn't realize that, but I won't be buying a new graphics card any

i

oon

The serious gamers who want the bleeding edge graphics cards are going to have to start learning about the needs of regular people who don't

video games and/or don't use computers. And those needs are tariffs.

There are a whole lot of things with chips in them that you better hope you won't need to buy anytime soon.

You might be right, but this thread was about "PC sales." :)

PCs are the obvious starting point, but just about everything has a mini-computer in it these days.


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